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Are the Liberals Slipping?

Liaison shows stability and a Liberal majority, while Mainstreet points to a tighter race

Curtis Fric's avatar
Curtis Fric
Sep 04, 2025
∙ Paid

Two new polls were released today that are telling very different stories at the federal level.

Liaison’s newest federal poll suggests very little movement between the Liberals and Conservatives compared to their poll conducted at the start of the month. Those two parties remain unchanged, while the Bloc and NDP both slipped a point as the Greens and PPC gained that lost support.



However, Mainstreet suggests a large shift compared to their late June poll, with the Liberals falling five points and the Conservatives rising two. The Bloc and NDP both regained ground in Mainstreet’s polling, while the PPC also nudged up in the standings.

Mainstreet’s numbers are paywalled at the regional level (Though make no mistake, the regionals point to a significantly closer race), while Liaison’s public results allow us to dig a little deeper.

So let’s take a look at Liaison and model it out.


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