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UCP Under Siege From Both Flanks?

The Republican Party is growing in rural Alberta, while the Progressive Conservative brand remains a force to be reckoned with

Curtis Fric's avatar
Curtis Fric
Sep 24, 2025
∙ Paid

New polling from Cardinal Research is shedding light on the latest political situation in Alberta, as party discontent within the UCP is bubbling to the surface.

The poll finds 43% of Albertans saying they would vote for the UCP if an election were held today, while the NDP trails at 36%. The most notable development is the newly rebranded Republican Party of Alberta (formerly the Buffalo Party), which pulls 11% of the vote in the province.

The Alberta Liberals and Alberta Party poll at 5% and 4% respectively.



The UCP holds a comfortable lead in Calgary, while being much closer to the NDP in Edmonton than New Democrats would probably like. However, the NDP is holding its own in rural Alberta, while the UCP sheds votes to the Republicans, who sit at 18% in the region.

Let us model this poll out alongside the hypothetical poll where the Alberta Party is successfully rebranded into the Progressive Conservatives.


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