Three Provinces, Three Different Pictures
Ontario’s split projections, Quebec’s razor-thin race, and Alberta’s unusual numbers made for one of the most varied polling weeks in months
Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for May 16, 2026!
This past week saw four new polls, the weekly Nanos and Liaison trackers, alongside Abacus and Research Co.
Liaison found the Liberals at 44% (-1 compared to May 2), with the Conservatives at 33% (-), NDP at 10% (+1), and BQ at 6% (-). The Greens were steady at 2% (-), as was the PPC at 2% (-).
Nanos meanwhile found the Liberals at 46% (+1 compared to May 1), with the Conservatives also up to 33% (+1), NDP down to 9% (-2), and BQ at 5% (-). The Greens were up to 4% (+1), and the PPC was up to 2% (+1).
Abacus found the Liberals up to 46% (+1 compared to April 22), with the Conservatives stable at 36% (-), NDP at 8% (-), and BQ down to 6% (-1). The Greens were up to 3% (+1), while the PPC was stable at 1% (-).
Research Co.’s newest poll has the Liberals up to 46% (+1 compared to Feb 6), with the Conservatives down to 31% (-1), the NDP up to 11% (+1), and BQ stable at 7% (-). The Greens were also stable at 3% (-), while the PPC was down to 1% (-1).
Overall, the Liberal lead this week sits at eleven points, one higher than they had last week.
The Liberal seat lead grew in Atlantic Canada (+6) and Ontario (+3), while their lead in British Columbia shrank (-2). Meanwhile, the Conservative lead in Saskatchewan/Manitoba shrank (-3), while it stayed the same in Alberta.
Now let’s take a quick look at the rest of the numbers.
