The NDP Has Potential Yet
Many Canadians remain open to voting for the party, if the right leader is chosen
Newly released polling from Pollara suggests that the NDP leadership race is anyone’s game, with many voters still focused on the direction of the party from here on out.
The survey found that 46% of Canadians said they might be open to voting for the NDP in the next federal election, offering the party a real opportunity to regain support in the next go around.
Those in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, British Columbia, and Ontario were the most likely to say they might vote NDP in the next election, ranging from 48% to 52%.
Notably, 50% of those who are white collar workers, alongside 47% of both blue collar and service job workers, say they would be open to voting for the New Democrats next election.
Digging deeper into the data, Pollara then asked what the NDP should focus on more, a practical and affordable solutions based view or one that promotes a bold and progressive push in Canadian politics.
Among respondents who said they might vote NDP, 61% say the party should focus on practical solutions that help working families make ends meet while strengthening the economy.
On the flip side, 24% said that the party should focus on a bold, progressive change such as challenging corporate power, protecting workers, and leading on climate justice, while another 15% were unsure.
Among those who are the most likely to buy an NDP membership, those margins are significantly closer, with those wanting practical solutions at 50% and those supporting a bold vision at 48%.
However, the NDP will need more than just vision if it wants to win the next election, as they will need a strategy for winning seats in the next go around.
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To that end, the survey then asked which of the two approaches potential NDP voters want to see from the party in the coming years, whether it should be a movement that pushes for big changes even if it means losing elections or a political strategy focusing on winning elections and implementing achievable reforms.
Among those who might vote NDP, both positions earn 40% from respondents, while another 20% remain unsure.
That even split is still present among those who are likely to buy a membership, with both positions earning 48% support, suggesting the party has a real dilemma on its hands moving forward.
Lastly, from the Pollara poll, the survey split respondents into even groups of about 443 each and played a video from one of the main three candidates in the race, those being McPherson, Ashton, and Lewis.
Respondents were then asked how they would feel if each candidate became the next federal NDP leader.
The survey found McPherson on top, with 14% saying they would be excited with her as leader, and another 56% would be comfortable. Only 5% say they would either be frustrated or angry if she was the next NDP leader.
Ashton comes in second, with 13% saying they would be excited with him as NDP leader, while 49% say they would be comfortable with him. About 7% say they would either be frustrated or angry if he was the next leader of the party.
Lastly, Lewis clocks in the lowest, with 8% saying they would be excited with him being NDP leader, while 51% say they would be comfortable. Similar to Ashton, 7% say they would be frustrated if Lewis became NDP leader.
The final data point to note is from the latest Angus Reid survey.
Angus Reid found the NDP at 9% in the current topline vote intention, while the Liberals and Conservatives are far ahead at 40% and 38% respectively.
Yet, the NDP is the second choice for 27% of Canadians, far outpacing any other party in the running, suggesting the party could have plenty of room to work with should it get its act together and elect a leader who can actually lead the party rather than abandon its values.
