The Great Alberta Breakup That Isn’t Happening
Grievances dominate the conversation, yet a clear majority would vote to remain in confederation
New polling out of Alberta suggests Albertans are frustrated with their lot in Canada, but many of them would not go as far as to vote to leave confederation.
Ipsos asked Canadians whether they agree with the notion that their province does not get its fair share from confederation, which found 51% of Albertans agreeing, compared to 32% of Quebecers. That question only found 27% of Quebecers and 21% of Albertans disagreeing, with the rest remaining neutral.
The survey also asked whether Canadians felt less committed to Canada than they did a few years ago, which found 32% of Albertans and 25% of Quebecers agreeing. A plurality of both respondent pools said they disagreed with that sentiment, with 43% of Albertans and 41% of Quebecers saying as much, with the rest remaining neutral.
Lastly from Ipsos, they found only 25% of Albertans and 24% of Quebecers agree with the idea that their province would be better off if it separated from Canada. Compare that to the comfortable majorities of 59% and 56%, for Alberta and Quebec respectively, who disagree that they would be better off if they separated, and it is clear where the most separatist prone provinces stand.
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Meanwhile, polling from Mainstreet Research ran a number of potential referendum questions past Albertans, with none of them finding support for independence above 40%.
When the baseline referendum question was asked, Mainstreet found 66% of Albertans would vote to remain in Canada, while the remaining 34% say they would vote for independence.
That polling is in line with many other pollsters who find support for Albertan independence, at the high end, around 30 to 35% in the province. For comparison, the latest polling from Angus Reid and Leger found support for independence at 29% and 23%, respectively, while Research Co’s January poll had 31%.
So what about the idea of an Alberta referendum if preceding events included the proposed pipeline agreement between Alberta and Ottawa falling through, and a referendum were held in light of that?
In that scenario, support for independence rises slightly from 34% to 37%, while support for remaining in Canada falls from 66% to 63%. In the end, a comfortable majority of Albertans would still vote to stay in the nation, even if some sour on it due to pipeline politics.
The last potential referendum question that Mainstreet asked was whether Albertans would support an independent Alberta if the United States promises an economic union with Alberta, which would allow a one to one exchange of CAD to USD, hypothetically giving Alberta a huge economic boost right out of the gates.
Though once the Americans are mentioned, Albertans quickly turn their nose up at the prospect. Support for staying in Canada rises to 68%, up two points from the baseline question, while support for independence drops two points to 32%.
Overall, polling around separatism in Alberta remains consistent, with support failing to break the 40% mark, and often polling much lower than that. While Albertans air their grievances around oil pipelines and other local issues, many Albertans do not see independence from Canada as a viable, or preferable, alternative to the current status quo.
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