Shortest Ballot Ever Hits Battle River-Crowfoot
Liberals slip in British Columbia, reducing their seat count on this week's model
Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for August 2, 2025!
This week we had two new polls with the weekly Nanos update, and Innovative.
Nanos saw the topline numbers remain relatively stable, with the NDP being the real movers in the past week. The Liberals sit at 44% (unchanged from last week), Conservatives at 34% (-), and the NDP at 12% (+2). Meanwhile, the Bloc slipped to 6% (-1), Greens at 2% (-), and PPC at 2% (-).
We also got a newly released Innovative poll, although this poll was conducted throughout June and was only released near the end of July. Regardless, it did replace the older Innovative poll from late May.
That poll found the Liberals at 43% (+1 compared to May), Conservatives at 38% (-1), and the NDP at 8% (-). The Bloc was stable at 6% (-), and so were the Greens at 3% (-).
Overall, the Liberals' lead in Ontario grew (+1), and in Atlantic Canada (+2). Their lead was stable in Quebec, while they lost ground in British Columbia (-3). Meanwhile, the Conservative lead in Manitoba and Saskatchewan grew (+1), while remaining flat in Alberta.
Let’s take a look at this week’s model!
