Polling Canada Projection: Liberal Majority
After a month of campaigning, the final Polling Canada model results in a Liberal majority
Here’s your final election update!
We received twelve new polls from Liaison (LPC +2), Mainstreet (LPC +2), Abacus (LPC +2), Nanos (LPC +3), Angus Reid (LPC +4), Forum (LPC +4), Innovative (LPC +4), Ipsos (LPC +4), Pallas (LPC +4), MQO (LPC +5), Research Co (LPC +5), and EKOS (LPC +6).
The Liberals finish with a four-point lead over the Conservatives nationally (43% - 39%), while the NDP ends at 8%. The Bloc is down to 6% (26% in Quebec), while the Greens and PPC are at 1.9% and 1.2%, respectively.
The Liberals hold a lead in Atlantic Canada (+22), Quebec (+15), Ontario (+7), and British Columbia (+1).
The Conservatives finish the election with leads in Alberta (+33) and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (+12).
Now let’s take a look at the final model of the election!
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The final Polling Canada model of the election has the Liberals at 185 seats, well above the 172 seats needed for a majority government.
The Conservatives place second at 128 seats, while the Bloc wins 21 in Quebec.
Under the model, the NDP would fail to reach official party status, finishing out at 9 seats. Meanwhile, the Greens would lose both of their seats (Narrowly) and be shut out of Parliament altogether.
Here are the rough ranges for each party on the model:
Liberal: 185 - (153 to 214)
Conservative: 128 - (101 to 149)
Bloc Québécois: 21 - (13 to 28 seats)
New Democrats: 9 - (1 to 14 seats)
Greens: 0 - (0 to 2 seats)
The Liberals look likely to hold many of their Ontario seats, with the Conservatives failing to make up enough ground in the polls to swing the seat-rich GTA. Likewise, the NDP have been entirely shut out of potential seat gains in the province, with the likes of Davenport and Ottawa Centre firmly in the hands of the Liberals.
British Columbia is much the same, with the Conservatives and Liberals strangling the Greens and NDP in the province. The NDP manage three seats in the province, with two of them in a very precarious situation, while Elizabeth May loses her seat for the Greens narrowly.
The final polls put a kibosh on the Liberals hold in Edmonton and Calgary, pushing the Grits back as the Conservatives regained strength in the province. At the Liberal’s high point in the election, they were ahead in nearly all the Edmonton seats, while holding a handful of seats in Calgary.
Now the Liberals have been pushed back to five ridings in the province, with two of them set to be close races, should the projections hold up.
Yet, the Liberals have surprising strength in the central prairies, which is helping to make the Saskatoon seats competitive on the final iteration of the model.
That Liberal strength came at the expense of the NDP, who have seen their vote share plummet in the polls over the course of the election. Even their strongest seats, like Winnipeg Centre, are projected to be narrow holds for the party.
Moving back out east, and the Bloc has been beaten down in the polls, but they still hold 21 seats on the model. A less than ideal result for the party, but one where they still hold official party status and remain above 20 seats. The Liberals and Conservatives have increased their vote share in the province, helping to squeeze the Bloc in Montreal and around Quebec City.
Finally, Atlantic Canada is a mixed bag that benefits the Liberals above all else. If the election results are reflective of the polling averages, then the Liberals will hold much of what they won in 2021, while making a number of Conservative ridings competitive.
And that’s the end of this election, with results set to roll in tomorrow!
As they say, the only poll that matters is the one on election day. So if you haven’t voted, get out to vote on Monday, and let’s put Canadian democracy to the test!
In The End…
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Thanks for all you do. This election has been a wild ride to get through