One Seat Away From A Majority Government
As another Conservative MP crosses the floor, Carney's dreams of a majority government are within reach
Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for December 13, 2025!
This week saw two new polls, the weekly Nanos tracker and Innovative.
Nanos saw the Liberals drop to 39% (-3 compared to last week), while the Conservatives remained stable at 38% (-). The NDP rose to 10% (+2), while the Bloc slipped to 6% (-1), and the Greens held steady at 3% (-).
Innovative saw little movement at the topline, with the Liberals at 39% (-1 compared to Oct 27), the Conservatives at 38% (-1), and the NDP at 9% (-). The Bloc climbed to 8% (+1), while the Greens also increased to 4% (+1).
Overall, the Liberal lead nationally shrank (-1 compared to last week) on the polling average.
The Liberals also took a hit in Atlantic Canada (-3), while growing their lead in Ontario (+1). Meanwhile, the Conservative lead in British Columbia inched down (-1), while their lead grew in Alberta (+2) and the central prairies (+2).
Let us take a look at this week’s model and other polls making headlines!
