One Calm Federal Race, Four Wild Provincial Polls
The national race holds steady while Green and NDP surges dominate the latest provincial polling
Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for July 4, 2026!
This past week saw two new polls, the weekly Nanos and Liaison trackers.
Liaison found the Liberals down to 42% (-1 compared to Jun 20), with the Conservatives up to 34% (+2), NDP at 13% (-1), and Bloc at 6% (-). The Greens were stable at 2% (-), as well as the PPC at 2% (-)
Nanos had the Liberals at 44% (Unchanged compared to Jun 19), with the Conservatives down to 30% (-2), NDP at 12% (+1), and Bloc at 7% (-). The Greens remain high at 5% (-), with the PPC stable at 2% (-).
Overall, the Liberals’ national lead remains at ten points over the Conservatives.
Meanwhile, the Liberal lead in Atlantic Canada grew (+4 compared to last week), while their lead in Ontario dropped (-1), as did their lead in British Columbia (-1). The Conservative lead narrowed slightly in the central Prairies (-1), but recovered some ground in Alberta (+2).
Now let’s take a brief look at the rest of the numbers!
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