NDP Retention Crisis Emerges in New Polling
A loyal core remains, but broad skepticism highlights the scale of the NDP’s rebuilding challenge
New polling from the Angus Reid Institute is taking a look at former New Democratic voters across the country and gauges their reactions to the state of the party today.
Right off the top, 13% of those who responded say they’ve voted for the party in the past (which Angus Reid defines as voters who have voted NDP at least once since the 2015 election) and would consider voting for the party again today.
Another 10% of respondents say they’ve voted for the NDP in the past, but would not be likely to consider voting for the party again in the future, while another 2% say they’ve voted for the party previously, but are unsure how they feel.
The remaining 75% of respondents are those who have not voted for the NDP in the last four elections, kicking them out of the respondent pool and leaving the rest of the questions for that 25% of Canadians who have voted for the party in the past.
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Among those NDP voters, about 52% say they would either be very likely or likely to consider voting for the NDP in the next federal election, while another 41% say they would either be unlikely or not likely at all to consider doing so.
Naturally, the highest share of respondents who say they’d be likely to vote for the NDP in the future comes from current NDP voters, of which 93% say as much. That number drops slightly to 83% among those who voted NDP in 2025, with 13% of recent NDP voters saying they’d be unlikely to support the party again.
Among those past NDP voters who voted for the Liberals in 2025, about 50% say they would be likely to consider supporting the party again in the future, a key demographic given how many votes shifted from the NDP to the Liberals after Carney took over the Prime Ministership.
Former NDP voters who lent their vote to the Conservatives in 2025 are much less likely to consider supporting the party, with only 26% of those previous voters saying they’d be likely to do so, compared to 72% who say they’d be unlikely.
When broken down by region, the provinces with past NDP voters that are the most likely to support the party in the future were Alberta, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, and Saskatchewan. All of these provinces have notable NDP presences at the provincial level, especially in Alberta and Saskatchewan where the NDP has a sizeable Official Opposition caucus in the wings.
However, former NDP voters in Quebec are the most hostile to the idea of supporting the party again, with only 37% saying they’d be likely to consider voting NDP in the future, compared to 54% who say they’re unlikely. If any Dippers still had dreams of a renewed Orange Wave across Quebec, they should probably put those dreams to bed for the foreseeable future.
The NDP fares okay in Ontario and British Columbia, two provinces they desperately need to regain voters in to achieve party status again. It was a disastrous result for the NDP when they were shut out of Ontario, even failing to win the NDP heartland of Hamilton Centre, where they finished third behind the Conservatives.
Lastly, the survey asked former NDP voters a series of statements and whether they agreed with them or not.
69% of former voters say the NDP is still the party of the working class, with 81% of 2025 NDP voters agreeing, alongside 72% of Liberal voters and a noticeable 44% of Conservative voters. Given how much the Conservatives have pulled blue collar workers away from the NDP in recent years, it’s no surprise recent Conservative voters were the most hostile on this question.
Another 37% say the NDP is the only major party concerned about climate change, with 46% of 2025 NDP voters agreeing as much, compared to 38% of Liberal voters and 17% of Conservative ones.
While there’s much gloom about the state of the party, only 25% of former NDP voters agree that the party is irrelevant today. Those who voted Conservative last election sat at 56% on this question, much higher than the 21% of Liberals or 13% of NDP voters who agree with the sentiment, though even 7% of current NDP voters say their party is irrelevant today.
Finally, 40% say the NDP’s best days are behind it, with 65% of Conservatives, 39% of Liberals, and 22% of NDP voters agreeing with that sentiment, alongside 14% of current NDP voters.
With the NDP leadership election slated for this weekend in Winnipeg, we’ll finally know who will lead the dilapidated party moving forward. If fundraising numbers are any indication (and they’re typically a good one in this instance), then Avi Lewis looks likely to win the leadership election handily. If Lewis does win, expect a lengthy look at his policy positions compared to where the Canadian public stands to be posted on this Substack when the official results are released.