More Albertans Think Smith Wants Separation
The UCP continues to lead provincially, but Smith faces weak approval ratings and growing doubts about the purpose behind her referendum proposal
New polling from Ipsos takes a look at how Albertans feel about their provincial leaders, and whether Danielle Smith is simply trying to save her job, alongside some new vote intention numbers.
Overall, Smith posts a net approval rating of -18%, while Naheed Nenshi fares slightly better at -5%, though both leaders remain underwater with Alberta voters.
Smith’s disapproval is driven heavily by Calgary, where she sits at -29%. Her numbers are somewhat better in Edmonton (-15%) and rural Alberta (-10%).
Meanwhile, Nenshi’s ratings are strongest in Calgary, where he sits at -2%, while his approval in Edmonton is actually positive at +1%. Only in rural Alberta does his approval fall into negative double digits, at -12%.
When Albertans were asked whether Danielle Smith wants Alberta to remain in Canada or separate, voters appeared unconvinced by her recent messaging on the issue.
Overall, 48% of Albertans say Smith wants Alberta to separate from Canada, while only 31% believe she wants the province to remain in Canada. The remaining 21% are unsure.
Pluralities in Calgary and the rest of Alberta believe Smith would prefer to leave Canada, while a narrow majority in Edmonton says the same. By party support, roughly two-thirds of NDP voters and nearly half of undecided voters believe she wants to leave Canada, while only about one-quarter of UCP voters agree.
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So, does Danielle Smith want to hold a separatist referendum so Albertans can have a legal say on their province’s future, or is she primarily trying to protect her position as UCP leader and premier?
Most Albertans lean toward the latter explanation, with 52% saying Smith is mainly trying to hold on to her job as premier. That view is shared by 62% of Calgarians and 52% of Edmontonians. Even in the rest of Alberta, more respondents say she is protecting her job than say she is creating a legal avenue for Albertans to decide their future (42% to 38%).
Breaking it down by party, the divide is stark. About 81% of NDP voters say Smith is attempting to protect her job, while 50% of undecided voters agree. Among UCP voters, 67% say she is simply trying to create a legal avenue for Albertans to have their say, while only 16% of undecided voters share that view.
Overall, Albertans do not appear fully convinced by Smith’s rationale for a referendum, and many do not believe she genuinely wants Alberta to remain in Canada. That perception could also be influencing provincial voting intentions.
The UCP currently leads the NDP 48% to 45% in the provincial vote intention. Compared with the last election, that would leave the UCP down five points, while the NDP is up one point.
In both Calgary and Edmonton, the NDP holds a narrow lead. The Calgary result would be an excellent sign for the party, while the Edmonton numbers are less impressive, though the NDP would still likely retain most of its seats there.
Meanwhile, the rest of Alberta remains strong territory for the UCP, though a 56% to 40% result there would still leave the NDP competitive in several ridings. On that map, places like Red Deer, both Lethbridge seats, and even Lesser Slave Lake could become competitive for the NDP.
While this is only one poll, it shows a familiar pattern in the separation debate. The UCP overwhelmingly dominates among voters who want Alberta to leave Canada, winning 88% of that group, while the NDP picks up about 9%. But among voters who want Alberta to remain in Canada, the NDP leads 59% to 34% over the UCP, and that group represents a much larger share of the electorate.
