Liberals Tick Up, PCs Surprise Out East

A surprise PC win in Newfoundland shakes up an otherwise quiet week in the numbers

Oct 18, 2025

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Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for October 18, 2025!

This week we only had one new poll, the weekly Nanos tracker.

That Nanos poll had the Liberals at 39% (unchanged from the week before), the Conservatives at 37% (-1), and the NDP at 12% (-). The Bloc saw some improvement, rising to 7% (+1), while the Greens were stable at 4% (-).

Overall, the Liberal lead nationally ticked up (+1 compared to last week), while the lead in Atlantic Canada was the only significant mover sub-nationally (+3), though the Liberal lead in Quebec did tick down (-1).

Let’s take a quick look at this week’s model and chat about the results out of Newfoundland and Labrador while we’re at it.

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