Liberals Surge On The Model Amid Massive Polling Spike
Poilievre trails by twenty-nine points on preferred Prime Minister as the seat gap expands
Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for February 7, 2026!
This past week saw four new polls, the weekly Nanos and Liaison trackers, Mainstreet, and EKOS.
Liaison saw the Liberals jump to 43% (+1 compared to Jan 26), while the Conservatives inched up to 35% (+1), and the NDP dipped to 8% (-2). The Bloc ticked down to 7% (-1), while the Greens sit at 3% (-), and the PPC stays at 2% (-).
Nanos saw little to no movement again this week, with the Liberals at 39% (Unchanged compared to Jan 23), Conservatives at 35% (-), and NDP up to 13% (+1). The Bloc remains was also up at 9% (+1), with the Greens down to 3% (-1), and PPC at 1% (-1).
Mainstreet saw a huge swing from their previous poll, with the Liberals at 51% (+10 compared to Dec 12), Conservatives down to 36% (-6), Bloc at 6% (-1), and the NDP tanking further to 4% (-2). The Greens were stable at 2% (-), alongside the PPC at 1% (-).
EKOS, despite being released just before last week’s model update, is included this week. That poll found the Liberals at 44% (Unchanged compared to Nov 11), Conservatives down to 30% (-3), NDP up to 14% (+3), and Bloc at 5% (-). The Greens were up to 4% (+1), with the PPC stagnant at 2% (-).
Innovative Research released a new poll that had the Liberals at 40% and Conservatives at 38%, both down one point, while the NDP and Bloc were up a point each to 10% and 7%, respectively. That poll has no regionals, once again, and isn’t included in the update as a result.
Overall, the Liberal lead nationally grew by a whopping three points this week, leaving the Liberals eight points ahead of the Conservatives.
The Liberal lead grew in Atlantic Canada (+6 compared to last week), Ontario (+6), British Columbia (+2), and Quebec (+2). Meanwhile, the Conservative lead in Alberta shrank (-3), while remaining stable in the central prairies.
The Liberals also saw their leads increase among women (+5), those over 55 years of age (+3), those between 35 and 54 (+2), and those under 34 (+3). The Conservatives maintain a one point lead among men.
Let us take a look at this week’s model and other polls making headlines!
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