Liberals Soaring High As Conservatives Slide
Carney reaches yet another new high in the seat projections as Conservatives slide in the polls
Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for March 14, 2026!
This past week saw four new polls, the weekly Nanos and Liaison trackers, Spark Insights and Pollara.
Liaison’s poll had the Liberals up to 44% (+1 compared to Feb 28), the Conservatives dropping to 30% (-3), NDP at 9% (-), and the Bloc at 6% (-). The PPC came it at 4% (+2), and the Greens at 3% (-).
Nanos saw the Liberals rise further, with the Grits at 46% (+2 compared to Feb 27), Conservatives at 33% (-), NDP at 10% (-1), and Bloc at 5% (-). The Greens were stable at 5% (-), as well as the PPC at 1% (-).
Spark released its first poll of the year, finding the Liberals at 46% (+5 compared to May 30, 2025), Conservatives tanking to 31% (-9), NDP up to 10% (+2), and the Bloc at 5% (-). Other Parties made up 8% of the vote, up from 5% in May.
Pollara dropped its first poll since the 2025 election, with the Liberals at 47% (+3 compared to the election result), 34% for the Conservatives (-7), with the NDP at 9% (+3) and Bloc at 7% (+1). Other parties made up 3% of the poll.
Overall, the Liberal lead expanded by two points nationally this week, with the Liberals at 46% and the Conservatives at 33%, leaving the Grits thirteen points ahead of their rivals.
The Liberal lead grew in Quebec (+1 compared to last week), and in British Columbia (+2), while their lead shrunk in Atlantic Canada (-2).
Meanwhile, the Conservatives are continuing to lose ground in the prairies, with their lead in Alberta dropping to only nine-points (-3), and in Saskatchewan/Manitoba it’s down to five points (-4).
Let us take a look at this week’s model and other polls making headlines!
