Liberals Regain 200-Seat Projection
Conservatives slip to their lowest share of seats since the election as the Battle River-Crowfoot by-election looms
Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for August 16, 2025!
This week we had four new polls with the weekly Nanos update, Liaison, Leger, and Abacus. Here’s where each of those polls stand nationally, with the change to their last respective poll.
Nanos found the Liberals at 45% (+1), Conservatives at 32% (-1), and NDP at 12% (-). Meanwhile, the Bloc improved to 6% (+1), while the Greens were stable at 3% (-).
Liaison released their first poll since the election, with their results showing the Liberals at 44% (unchanged compared to the election), Conservatives at 35% (-6), and NDP at 11% (+5). The Bloc is stable at 6% (-), with the Greens at 3% (+2).
Abacus polling had the Liberals at 43% (-), Conservatives at 40% (-), and NDP at 8% (+1), painting a stable picture. The Bloc inched down to 6% (-1), while the Greens remain at 2% (-).
Lastly, Leger’s poll had the Liberals at 46% (-2), Conservatives at 36% (+1), and NDP at 6% (-1). The Bloc inched up to 7% (+1), while the Greens were stable at 3% (-).
Overall, the Liberal lead nationally rose by one point this week, while also rising in Atlantic Canada (+2) and British Columbia (+1). Consequently, the Liberal lead slipped in Quebec (-1), while the Conservative lead in Alberta grew (+3).
Let’s take a look at this week’s model!
