Liberals Recover Ahead Of Poilievre's Convention
As the Conservatives gather, Poilievre faces slipping seats and a stubborn polling gap
Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for January 24, 2026!
This past week saw four new polls, the weekly Nanos and Liaison trackers, alongside Pallas and Abacus.
Liaison found the Liberals ticking up to 40% (+1 compared to the previous week), while the Conservatives and NDP both ticked down a point to 35% and 11%, respectively. The Bloc remains at 8% nationally, while the Greens and PPC are stable at 3% and 1% each.
Nanos saw the Liberals stable at 39% (unchanged compared to the previous week), while the Conservatives ticked down to 35% (-1), and the NDP ticked up to 12% (+1). The Bloc was stable at 8% (-) nationally, while the Greens inched up to 5% (+1), and the PPC was stable at 2% (-).
Pallas’ latest poll has the Liberals inching down to 40% (-1 compared to Dec 15), with the Conservatives moving similarly to 37% (-1), while the NDP jumped to 11% (+3). The Bloc was down in Pallas’ polling to 7% (-1), alongside the Greens at 3% (-1).
Abacus’ newest poll finds the Liberals up to 41% (+1), the Conservatives down to 39% (-1), and the NDP stable at 8% (-). The Bloc was also stable at 7% (-), while the Greens saw no movement at 3% (-), while the PPC was up to 2% (+1).
You’ll notice the average now include polling averages for sex and age, though regionals will still be the key metric used to track the seat counts on the model.
Overall, the Liberal lead nationally remains stable, while their lead grew in Ontario (+2 compared to last week) and Quebec (+2), while now being tied with the Conservatives in British Columbia (Previously CPC +2).
The Conservative lead in Alberta ticked down (-4), while dipping less in the central prairies (-1).
Let us take a look at this week’s model and other polls making headlines!
