Liberals On The March
The latest polling has shown the race narrowing substantially between the Liberals and Conservatives
For the last couple of years, it has become the norm for the Conservative Party to poll well ahead of the incumbent Liberals. Starting in August 2023, the Conservatives built a steady lead over Trudeau’s Liberals, rising to a ten-point lead, then a fifteen point lead. Before we knew it, Poilievre was consistently polling twenty-points ahead of the Liberals.
Many folks, myself included, figured Poilievre and his Conservatives were heading for an easy majority government come the next federal election. He might not win 200+ seats, but it was almost guaranteed to land him in the Prime Minister’s Office.
Though, it may be possible we’re all experiencing a lesson in not assuming an outcome is pre-ordained, and likely none more than the Conservatives themselves.
With the election of Donald Trump to a second term as US President, the subsequent threats of economy rattling tariffs, and the resignation of Justin Trudeau as Liberal leader, the race has been turned on its head.
Let’s take a look at the data we have on hand to see how this race has changed in the last month.
