Liberals Lead in Post-Election Polls as Carney's Popularity Surges
The first post-election model suggests the Liberals remain ahead of their Conservative rivals
Welcome back to the first of many weekly updates for the Polling Canada model!
Now that we have more than a single poll available, we can start plotting out the model as we move forward. In a minority parliament, an election is always just around the corner.
The oldest of the three polls in the model is from Abacus, completed on May 21. Their poll had the Liberals at 41% nationally, with the Conservatives at 40% and the NDP at 8%. The Bloc and Greens came in at 7% and 3%, respectively, while others were at 1%.
Next is Innovative’s May 22 poll, which showed the Liberals at 42%, the Conservatives at 39%, and the NDP again at 8%. The Bloc was at 6%, the Greens at 3%, and others at 2%.
Finally, Nanos found the Liberals at 40%, the Conservatives at 39%, and the NDP at 10%. The Bloc and Greens registered at 6% and 4%, respectively, with others at 1%.
As a result, the Liberals hold a two-point average lead over the Conservatives, with the NDP and Bloc at 9% and 6% (27% in Quebec), respectively. The Greens average 3.3%, while others sit at 1.3%.
Let’s take a look at what the model shows based on this week’s numbers.
