Liberals Hold Their Own As Their Majority Is Confirmed
Ontario strength keeps Liberal dominance intact despite the national dip
Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for April 18, 2026!
This past week saw four new polls, the weekly Nanos and Liaison trackers, alongside Abacus and Ipsos.
Liaison found the Liberals ticking down again this week to 43% (-1 compared to Apr 4), with the Conservatives at 33% (-), NDP up to 10% (+1), and Bloc at 7% (+1). The Greens and PPC were stable at 3% and 2%, respectively.
Nanos also saw the Liberals inching down to 45% (-1 compared to Apr 3), while the Conservatives were up to 32% (+1), NDP down to 12% (-1), and Bloc at 5% (-1). The Greens and PPC were stable at 4% and 1%, respectively.
Abacus had the Liberals stable at 44% (Unchanged compared to Mar 24), the Conservatives up to 38% (+1), NDP down to 8% (-1), and Bloc stable at 6% (-). The Greens and PPC were, once again, stable at 3% and 1%.
Ipsos was the only one that found the Liberals up this week at 45% (+1 compared to Feb 26), while the Conservatives dropped to 33% (-3), the NDP up to 9% (+1), and the Bloc stable at 7% (-). The Greens were stuck at 3%, while the PPC was up to 2% (+1).
We also had a BC poll from Mainstreet that found the Liberals at 51% (+4 compared to Mar 13), Conservatives at 32% (-2), NDP at 9% (-1), and Greens at 4% (-).
Overall, the Liberals have seen their lead tick down from thirteen points over the Conservatives to eleven points nationally.
Perhaps surprisingly, this is the first week in which the Liberals’ strongest polling region was not Atlantic Canada, but Ontario. The Liberal lead rose in Ontario this week (+3 compared to last week), while they saw their numbers slip in Atlantic Canada (-9), Quebec (-2), and British Columbia (-1).
The Conservative lead recovered somewhat in the central Prairies (+3), alongside a smaller gain in Alberta (+1).
Let’s take a look at this week’s model and the other polls making headlines!
