Liberals Fall To The Majority Line
As the polls narrow, the Liberals reach their lowest seat share in the model since the election
Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for October 11, 2025!
This week we had two new polls, one from Leger and the weekly Nanos tracker.
Leger saw stronger numbers for the Liberals than some of their polling industry counterparts, though still a decline compared to their last poll. The Liberals sit at 44% (-3 from Sept 7), Conservatives at 38% (-), NDP at 7% (+1), and Bloc at 6% (-). The Greens were up slightly to 3% (+1), while another 2% opted for other parties.
Nanos also saw a narrowing in their weekly polling, with the Liberals at 39% (-2 from Sept 26), Conservatives at 38% (+1), NDP at 12% (-), and Bloc at 6% (+1). The Greens were steady at 4% (-), and PPC at 1% (-).
As a result, the Liberal lead nationally shrank this week (-2 compared to last week), with their lead in Atlantic Canada (-5) and Quebec (-1) slipping. However, Leger’s better BC numbers for the Liberals, which are an outlier in their own right, nudged the lead in the province up (+2) for the Grits.
The Conservatives expanded their lead in Alberta (+4) and the central Prairies (+2).
With that, let’s take a look at this week’s model alongside other polls from the week!
