Liberals Continue To Rise As Conservatives Tread Water
Poilievre's absence from Parliament may be helping to boost Carney's Liberals
Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for July 20, 2025!
This week we had two new polls with the weekly Nanos update, and Abacus.
Abacus remains an outlier among current pollsters, though their latest numbers show the Liberals slowly expanding their lead over the Conservatives. They found the Liberals at 43% (+2 since July 2), the Conservatives at 40% (no change), and the NDP at 7% (-2). Meanwhile, the Bloc sits at 7% nationally (28% in Quebec), while the Greens remain steady at 2%.
Nanos’ weekly tracking shows the Conservatives regaining some ground. The Liberals sit at 45% (unchanged from last week), while the Conservatives have inched up to 34% (+1). The NDP stands at 11% (-1), while the Bloc and Greens remain stable at 6% and 2%, respectively.
The latest averages show the Liberals widening their lead in Atlantic Canada (+1 from last week), Quebec (+1), Ontario (+1), and British Columbia (+1). Conversely, the Conservatives have expanded their lead in Manitoba/Saskatchewan (+1) and Alberta (+1).
Let’s take a look at this week’s model!
