Liberal Gains Accelerate in Latest Polling
In the face of Poilievre's leadership review, the polls swing back towards the Liberals
Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for January 31, 2026!
This past week saw five new polls, the weekly Nanos and Liaison trackers, alongside Leger, Abacus, and Angus Reid.
Liaison saw the Liberals jump to 42% (+2 compared to Jan 17), while the Conservatives dipped to 34% (-1), alongside the NDP at 10% (-1). The Bloc remains stable at 8%, while the Greens sit at 3% (-), and the PPC inches to 2% (+1).
Nanos saw little to no movement this week, with the Liberals at 39% (Unchanged compared to Jan 16), Conservatives at 35% (-), and NDP at 12% (-). The Bloc remains stable at 8% (-), with the Greens down to 4% (-1), and PPC at 2% (-).
Leger’s long awaited poll has the Liberals jumping to 47% (+4 compared to Nov 30), Conservatives up to 38% (+2), with the NDP at 5% (-3), and Bloc at 6% (-3). The Greens also dipped to 2% (-2).
Angus Reid’s latest poll has the Liberals up to 41% (+1 compared to Dec 1), alongside the Conservatives at 38% (+1), and NDP at 10% (-). The Bloc dipped to 7% (-2), while the Greens also shed support, sitting at 2% (-1).
Abacus found the Liberals rising to 43% (+2 compared to Jan 16), the Conservatives stable at 39% (-), while the NDP remains at 8% (-). The Bloc ticked down to 6% (-1), as the Greens also dipped to 2% (-1), while the PPC stayed at 2% (-).
There was also an Innovative poll that found the Liberals at 41% (+2 compared to Dec 14), and Conservatives at 39% (-), however, no regionals were provided for that poll so we’re keeping it off the list for this week.
(EKOS released a poll late Friday evening showing the Liberals with a fifteen point lead, but that was released after the writing of this article, and thus will be included in next week’s update!)
Overall, the Liberal lead nationally jumped this week (+2 compared to last week), thanks to the Bloc and New Democrats shedding votes at the topline.
The Liberal lead grew in Quebec (+4), Atlantic Canada (+3), Ontario (+2), and British Columbia (+1). Meanwhile, the Conservative lead in Saskatchewan/Manitoba grew (+1), as well as their lead in Alberta (+1).
Interestingly, the Liberals and Conservatives are now tied among 18 to 34-year-olds, whereas last week the Conservatives held a five point lead. Likewise, their lead among men shrunk by three points, while Liberals remain ahead among women.
Let us take a look at this week’s model and other polls making headlines!
