Liberal Dominance Survives the Weekly Noise
The Conservative ceiling keeps slipping as the polls remain strong for the Liberals
Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for February 14, 2026!
This past week saw three new polls, the weekly Nanos and Liaison trackers, and Research Co.
Liaison finds the Liberals ticking down to 42% (-1 compared to Jan 31), the Conservatives stable at 35% (-), NDP up to 9% (+1), and Bloc at 7% (-). The Greens and PPC remain stable at 3% and 2%, respectively.
Nanos remains quite stable, with the Liberals at 39% (Unchanged compared to Jan 30), the Conservatives at 35% (-), and NDP at 13% (-). The Bloc, Greens, and PPC are all also stable at 9%, 3%, and 1%, respectively.
Research Co saw a notable shift, with the Liberals at 45% (+2 compared to Sep 12), while the Conservatives tank to 32% (-6), and the NDP tick up to 10% (+2). The Bloc was also up to 7% (+1), Greens up to 3% (+1), and PPC also up at 2% (+1).
Overall, the Liberal lead nationally inched up another point this week, with the governing party now holding a nine point lead over their Conservative rivals.
The Liberal lead inched down in Ontario (-1 compared to last week), while their lead grew in BC (+3) and Quebec (+2). Meanwhile, the Conservative lead is stable in Alberta, while ticking down in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (-1).
Liberals now also lead among all demographics, with the party now ahead among men by one point, compared to the one point Conservative lead on last week’s averages.
Let us take a look at this week’s model and other polls making headlines!
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