Is This The Liberal Peak Or Their Plateau?
With the seat model flattening out, the question shifts from how high to how stable
Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for April 4, 2026!
This past week saw five new polls, the weekly Nanos and Liaison trackers, alongside Spark, Abacus, and Leger.
Liaison found the Liberals at 45% (-1 compared to Mar 11), Conservatives at 33% (+1), NDP at 9% (-), and Bloc at 6% (-1). The Greens dipped to 2% (-1), while the PPC was stuck at 2% (-).
Nanos saw the Liberal lead inch back up, with the Grits at 47% (+1 compared to Mar 20), Conservatives at 32% (-1), NDP at 11% (-1), and Bloc at 5% (-). The Greens were stable at 4% (-), alongside the PPC at 1% (-).
Spark had the Liberals stable at 46% (Unchanged compared to Mar 6), Conservatives down to 30% (-1), NDP up to 11% (+1), and Bloc flat at 5% (-). Other parties made up 8% of the vote.
Abacus’ tracking narrowed this past week, with the Liberals down to 44% (-2 compared to Mar 11), Conservatives up to 37% (+2), NDP at 9% (+2), with the Bloc down to 6% (-1). Greens were stable at 3% (-), alongside the PPC at 1% (-).
Leger’s polling found the Liberals maintaining their lead, with the Liberals down to 48% (-1 compared to Mar 2), Tories down to 34% (-1), Bloc up to 7% (+2), and NDP up to 6% (+1). The Greens remain flat at 3% (-).
Overall, the Liberal lead nationally remains stable at thirteen points this week.
The Liberal lead ticked up in Ontario (+2 compared to last week), alongside British Columbia (+1), while their lead dropped in Quebec (-2), and remained stable elsewhere.
The Conservative lead in Alberta has recovered again this week (+3), while their lead in the central prairies has been inching down in return (-1).
Let us take a look at this week’s model and other polls making headlines!
