Is a Liberal Majority on the Table?
While they slip in the latest polls, floor crossing drama has inched them even closer to a majority in parliament
Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for November 8, 2025!
This week saw six new polls, the weekly Nanos tracker, Liaison, Innovative, EKOS, Leger and Abacus, so let’s blitz through them quickly!
Nanos found the Liberals at 39% (Unchanged from the previous week), Conservatives at 37% (-), NDP at 13% (-), BQ at 7% (-), Greens at 2% (-), and PPC at 2% (+1).
Abacus had the Conservatives at 42% (+1 from Oct 15), Liberals at 40% (-), NDP at 8% (-), BQ at 6% (-1), Greens at 3% (-), and PPC at 1% (-).
Liaison’s survey had the Liberals at 42% (-1 from Sept 21), Conservatives at 38% (+1), NDP at 11% (+1), Bloc at 5% (-), Greens at 2% (-), and PPC at 1% (-1).
EKOS’ IVR survey found the Liberals at 43% (-1 since Oct 24), Conservatives at 38% (+6), NDP at 8% (-4), Bloc at 6% (-), Greens at 4% (+1), and PPC at 2% (-). It is notable that their previous poll was also an online panel.
Leger’s survey had the Liberals at 43% (-1 compared to Oct 7), Conservatives at 38% (-), NDP at 7% (-), Bloc at 7% (+1), and Greens at 4% (+1).
Lastly, Innovative had the Liberals at 40% (-1 since July 28), Conservatives at 39% (-), NDP at 9% (-), BQ at 7% (-), and Greens at 3% (-1).
With so many new polls this week, the averages have shifted across the country.
The Liberal lead nationally ticked down (-1), leaving the party three points ahead of the Conservatives. The Liberal lead also fell in Atlantic Canada (-8), British Columbia (-4), and Ontario (-2).
On the other hand, the Liberals improved their margin in Quebec (+4), while the Conservatives saw their lead slip in Alberta (-5) and the central prairies (-1).
Let us dig into the model and this week’s polls.
(And before we get to that - Kyle Hutton put together a full interactive map of the 2025 poll by poll results from the election! If you want to see that map, check here)
