Half of Canadians Doubt Poilievre Can Beat Carney
Liberals rebound this week on the Polling Canada model as smaller parties lose ground in recent polls
Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for September 13, 2025!
This week we had three new polls from Abacus, Leger, and the weekly Nanos poll.
Abacus saw the Liberals rebound in their latest survey, rising to 43% (+4 from Aug 19th), while the Conservatives ticked down to 40% (-1). The Bloc remains at 7% (-), while the NDP took a step down to 6% (-), remaining stable this week, just as the Greens were at 2% (-).
Leger’s poll finds the Liberals are still riding high at 47% (+1 from Aug 4), while the Conservatives were up to 38% (+2). The Bloc ticked down to 6% (-1). The NDP was stable at 6% (-), while the Greens inched down to 2% (-1).
Finally, Nanos saw little movement this week, with the Liberals at 43% (unchanged from last week), Conservatives at 33% (+1), and NDP at 13% (-). The Bloc was down to 6% (-1), while the Greens were up to 4% (+1).
Overall, the Liberal lead nationally remains stable, while their lead in Atlantic Canada rose (+5), as well as in BC (+1) and Quebec (+2). Their lead slipped in Ontario (-1), while the Conservative lead in Alberta and the central prairies narrowed by three and two points, respectively.
With that, let’s take a look at this week’s model!
