From Comfortable Lead to Coin Flip Territory
The year ends with the Liberals and Conservatives closer than they have been since the election
Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for December 23, 2025!
This past week and a half saw seven new polls, the weekly Nanos tracker, Mainstreet, Ipsos, Pallas, Liaison, Innovative and Abacus.
Nanos found the Liberals at 36% (-3 compared to last week), Conservatives at 36% (-), NDP at 11% (-), Bloc at 7% (-), Greens at 4% (-), and PPC at 3% (+1).
Mainstreet has the Conservatives at 42% (+2 compared to Nov 8), Liberals at 41% (-3), Bloc at 7% (+1), NDP at 6% (+1), Greens at 2% (-), and the PPC at 1% (-1).
Ipsos’ latest poll has the Liberals at 40% (-3 compared to Sep 8), Conservatives at 37% (-2), NDP at 9% (+2), Bloc at 9% (+2), PPC at 2% (-), and the Greens at 2% (+1).
Pallas clocks the Liberals at 41% (Unchanged compared to Oct 16), Conservatives at 38% (+1), NDP at 8% (-3), Bloc at 8% (+2), and the Greens at 4% (+1).
Liaison saw the Liberals drop to 38% (-3 compared to Nov 30), with the Conservatives at 38% (+2), NDP at 12% (-), Bloc at 7% (+2), Greens at 3% (+1), and PPC at 2% (-).
Innovative’s poll has the Liberals at 39% (Unchanged compared to Dec 1), Conservatives at 39% (+1), NDP at 10% (+1), Bloc at 7% (-1), and the Greens at 4% (-).
Finally, Abacus found the Liberals at 41% (Unchanged compared to Dec 1), Conservatives at 41% (-), NDP at 9% (+2), Bloc at 6% (-1), Greens at 2% (-), and PPC at 1% (-).
With all of that factored into the averages, the Liberals find themselves edging ever closer to their Conservative rivals.
The Liberal lead nationally shrank this week (-1 compared to the week before), while their advantages also narrowed in Ontario (-4) and Quebec (-3). The Liberals did, however, manage to expand their lead in Atlantic Canada (+4).
On the other side of the ledger, the Conservative lead in BC narrowed (-1), while it grew in Alberta (+3).
Let us take a look at this week’s model and other polls making headlines!
