Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for December 23, 2025!
This past week and a half saw seven new polls, the weekly Nanos tracker, Mainstreet, Ipsos, Pallas, Liaison, Innovative and Abacus.
Nanos found the Liberals at 36% (-3 compared to last week), Conservatives at 36% (-), NDP at 11% (-), Bloc at 7% (-), Greens at 4% (-), and PPC at 3% (+1).
Mainstreet has the Conservatives at 42% (+2 compared to Nov 8), Liberals at 41% (-3), Bloc at 7% (+1), NDP at 6% (+1), Greens at 2% (-), and the PPC at 1% (-1).
Ipsos’ latest poll has the Liberals at 40% (-3 compared to Sep 8), Conservatives at 37% (-2), NDP at 9% (+2), Bloc at 9% (+2), PPC at 2% (-), and the Greens at 2% (+1).
Pallas clocks the Liberals at 41% (Unchanged compared to Oct 16), Conservatives at 38% (+1), NDP at 8% (-3), Bloc at 8% (+2), and the Greens at 4% (+1).
Liaison saw the Liberals drop to 38% (-3 compared to Nov 30), with the Conservatives at 38% (+2), NDP at 12% (-), Bloc at 7% (+2), Greens at 3% (+1), and PPC at 2% (-).
Innovative’s poll has the Liberals at 39% (Unchanged compared to Dec 1), Conservatives at 39% (+1), NDP at 10% (+1), Bloc at 7% (-1), and the Greens at 4% (-).
Finally, Abacus found the Liberals at 41% (Unchanged compared to Dec 1), Conservatives at 41% (-), NDP at 9% (+2), Bloc at 6% (-1), Greens at 2% (-), and PPC at 1% (-).
With all of that factored into the averages, the Liberals find themselves edging ever closer to their Conservative rivals.
The Liberal lead nationally shrank this week (-1 compared to the week before), while their advantages also narrowed in Ontario (-4) and Quebec (-3). The Liberals did, however, manage to expand their lead in Atlantic Canada (+4).
On the other side of the ledger, the Conservative lead in BC narrowed (-1), while it grew in Alberta (+3).
Let us take a look at this week’s model and other polls making headlines!
