E-2: Liberals Slip Below 190 Seats For The First Time Since March

The polls are narrowing as we enter the final stretch of the federal election, but will it be enough?

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Here’s your election update for April 25, 2025!

We received four new polls from Mainstreet (LPC +2), Pollara (LPC +3), Nanos (LPC +5), and Liaison (LPC +5).

With election day nearly in sight, the polls are doing little to move in any meaningful way. As mentioned before, it’s likely that the polls are baked in, and the last few polls we receive won’t be much different than we’ve seen already.

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Regardless, the Liberal lead in Ontario dipped slightly (-1 since yesterday), with a similar result in Quebec (-2).

The Conservatives grew their lead in Saskatchewan/Manitoba (+2), and Alberta (+1), while the rest of the nation remained relatively unchanged.

Let’s take a look at today’s model, and see what’s pulling the Liberals below the 190 seat mark for the first time since March 27th!

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