Conservatives Fell In Love, Canadians Didn't
New polling shows Poilievre dominant with the Conservative base but deep underwater with swing voters and much of the country
With Pierre Poilievre’s leadership review rapidly approaching, it’s time to take a look at where he stands with the Canadian public in the latest round of polling. Spoiler alert, he’s doing great with his base, but terribly with the rest of the nation.
The first poll came from Liaison, which found 37% of Canadians viewing the Conservative leader favourably, while another 57% view him unfavourably, leaving Pierre twenty points in the hole.
Poilievre is underwater in every single province and region, aside from Alberta, where his net favourables sit at +17%, compared to his worst region, Quebec, where his net favourables are more like -34%.
Liaison’s poll also found Poilievre doing terribly among those over the age of 65, with 71% viewing the Conservative leader unfavourably, compared to 59% of 50 to 64-year-olds, and 52% of those between 35 and 49. Poilievre does remain above water among those under 34, though he holds a narrow three point net favourable on that front.
As has been consistent with Poilievre, women view him much more unfavourably than men do, with his unfavourables among women at 62%, while men are at 51%, though he’s underwater among both demographics.
Though not to fear, we have a yet another poll this week that also takes a look at Poilievre’s favourables, and unfortunately the situation is worse in Angus Reid’s polling.
While Liaison found his net favourable at -20% among all Canadians, Angus Reid finds it at -22%, with 36% viewing Poilievre favourably, compared to 58% who view him unfavourably.
Once again, Poilievre finds himself underwater in every province and region aside from Alberta, though unlike Liaison’s +17% in Alberta, Angus Reid only finds him at +2% there. This is made up for by performing slightly better in some provinces than Liaison had, though overall he’s still down comparatively.
Unlike Liaison’s polling that found Poilievre doing the best among 18 to 34-year-olds, Angus Reid’s poll finds that’s his worst group, with his net favourables at -35%.
Angus Reid’s poll also found Poilievre doing worse among men than Liaison’s did, with Poilievre at 55% unfavourables, though the unfavourables among women are practically unchanged at 61%.
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There’s one more pollster that looks at Poilievre’s favourables recently, and did so in a more in depth approach.
Abacus Data took a look at Poilievre’s favourables, and compared those favourables to Mark Carney and Donald Trump, while also breaking the voter segments down into the Conservative Base (Think hardcore Conservatives), Conservative voters, potential Conservative voters (Swing voters), and the rest of the Canadian populace.
Overall, Poilievre does great with his own voters, with a net favourability of +82% among his base, and +80% among Conservative voters. For contrast, Carney polls at -79% among the CPC base and -64% among Conservative voters, while Trump does better at -34% with the base and -27% with the voters.
Where the dashboard lights come on is among potential CPC voters, the group that Poilievre and the Conservatives desperately need if they want to win an election for the first time in more than a decade.
Among potential CPC voters, Poilievre’s net favourables sit at -4%, while Carney does much better at +35%. Poilievre does do better than Trump does among potential CPC voters, given his net favourables are at -56%, though the bar is in hell on that one.
The rest of the Canadian populace could not be more negative on Poilievre. Among the rest of Canadians, Poilievre’s net favourables sit at -62%, compared to Carney’s +47%, or Trump’s -79%
Taken all together, Poilievre’s total net-favourability among the Canadian population is -13%, compared to Carney’s +8%, or Trump’s -61%.
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But does that change the perception around Poilievre? Will Conservative convention goers change their minds with this data at hand, or will they stick to their guns and keep Poilievre in? That is yet to be seen, though many swing voters seem keen on someone else being in the driver’s seat for the Conservatives.
Abacus found that 36% of potential CPC voters say they believe Poilievre’s leadership makes the Conservative Party less electable, compared to 32% who believe the opposite, and another 22% who think his leadership makes no difference on electability.
Compare that to 68% of Conservative voters, or 67% of the Conservative base who believe Poilievre makes the party more electable in the minds of Canadians.
Though, once again, compared to the rest of the populace, Conservatives could not be more different.
Among all other Canadians, 61% say that Poilievre’s leadership of the Conservative Party makes the party less electable, while only 13% believe it makes them more electable. Another 17% say that Poilievre’s leadership makes no difference in the electability of the Conservatives.
The Conservative base seems happy with Poilievre as leader, and so we don’t have any real belief to think he’s going to be getting shown the door this weekend when he faces the music at the party’s leadership review.
Though with recent polls seeing the Liberals tick up, or at minimum stay ahead of the Conservatives, while Carney’s approvals spike in the face of renewed Trump aggression towards Canada, it might give some members pause in thinking about the future direction of the party.