Carney's Liberals Reach Uncharted Territory
A record setting surge widens the gap to 113 seats, with Alberta emerging as the newest battleground
Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for February 28, 2026!
This past week saw four new polls, the weekly Nanos and Liaison trackers, Angus Reid, and Innovative.
Liaison saw the Liberals expand their lead again this week, with the Grits jumping to 45% (+2 compared to Feb 14), the Conservatives down to 33% (-1), the NDP at 9% (-1), and Bloc at 6% (-). The Greens were up to 3% (+1), with the PPC stable at 2% (-).
Nanos registered a staggering turn around on their rolling poll, with the Liberals up to 41% (+3 compared to Feb 13), Conservatives down to 34% (-3), NDP at 11% (-), and Bloc at 8% (-). The Greens were also up to 5% (+1), with the PPC flat at 1% (-).
Angus Reid also saw a dramatic turn, with the Liberals jumping to 45% (+4 since Jan 26), Conservatives down to 32% (-6), NDP at 10% (-), and the Bloc at 7% (-). The Greens were also up to 4% (+2).
Innovative released a topline poll which also broke from their close race, as the Liberals ticked up to 44% (+4 compared to Feb 2), Conservatives down to 38% (-1), NDP at 8% (-2), and Bloc at 6% (-1). The Greens were stable at 3% (-). No regionals were released for this poll, so only the topline is included in this week’s model.
Overall, the Liberal lead grew this week, expanding to an eleven-point margin (+2 compared to last week).
The Liberal lead grew in Atlantic Canada (+6), Ontario (+1), British Columbia (+1), and Quebec (+1). Meanwhile, the Conservative lead in the central prairies shrank slightly (-1), while taking a much more notable hit in Alberta (-7).
Let us take a look at this week’s model and other polls making headlines!
