Carney Leads on the Economy, Immigration, and Even Energy
A double-digit Liberal lead, high approvals for Carney, and comfortable Liberal leads on major issues offer little comfort for Conservatives
Newly released polling from Research Co is painting a similar picture to many other polls we’ve seen lately, and with early election rumours starting to pick up steam, there’s little doubt why Carney and his team may be eyeing another election to secure a majority.
The poll found Carney with the highest approvals among all party leaders, both in raw numbers and net approval. Carney’s total approval sits at 55%, while his net approval is +18%. Compare that to Poilievre, whose approval sits at 39%, with a net approval deep in the hole at -12%.
Once again, Poilievre faces a likeability issue with non-Conservative voters, and he’s going to need those voters to swing his way in an election if he wants a real shot at forming government. So far, those numbers have not improved since the last campaign.
Smaller party leaders remain largely underwater, except for Blanchet in Quebec, who is just above water with a net approval of +1%. Compare that to May, who finds herself at -7%, or Davies at -8%. All of them remain in far better positions than the PPC’s Bernier, who continues to be the most disliked leader in Canada at -32%.
Carney’s approvals are also tracking alongside vote intention and the best prime minister question. On the latter, Carney is far ahead, with 44% of Canadians saying he would make the best PM, compared to 25% who say the same for Poilievre.
That margin is not dissimilar to Nanos’ weekly tracking, though in comparison Carney is about ten points lower, while Poilievre is functionally the same. The difference appears to be made up by a slightly higher share of undecided respondents.
Those numbers are unsurprising, given Research Co found the Liberals holding a thirteen point lead in vote intention over their Conservative rivals, 45% to 32%. This marks the third poll in the last week and a half to show a double-digit Liberal lead, and the first non IVR poll to do so.
It is safe to say recent polling is pointing to a similar picture to what we saw in early 2025, when the Liberals opened up a comparable lead over the Conservatives, only for it to narrow by the end of the election. If an election were called today, we might very well see a similar result. Or maybe we won’t?
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Any election will ultimately come down to the issues Canadians care about most, and Research Co finds that the economy, housing, Canada US relations, and healthcare remain the top four.
Among respondents, 21% say the economy is their biggest issue, while 18% cite housing. Canada US relations and healthcare are tied for third at 16% each. The only other issue to reach double digits is immigration, which sits at 11%.
Research Co also asks which leader Canadians believe is best suited to handle each of the top issues facing the nation. Unfortunately for the Conservatives and Poilievre, Carney leads on nearly every issue, in some cases by more than twenty points.
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The one issue where Poilievre performs best, and where he is tied with Carney, is crime and safety, with both leaders at 35%. His next strongest issue is immigration, where he sits at 31%, a full nine points behind Carney’s 40%. That gap should raise red flags for those who believe Poilievre could dominate an issue typically favourable to the Conservatives.
From there, the Carney lead only widens. Carney leads Poilievre by fifteen points on who is best to handle healthcare, 42% to 27%, and by nineteen points on who is best to deal with national unity, 45% to 26%.
Even on the bread and butter economic issues facing Canada today, including energy and pipelines, alongside Canada-US relations, Carney holds comfortable leads.
His advantage over Poilievre on the economy sits at fifteen points, 45% to 30%, while his lead on Canada US relations is nineteen points, 46% to 27%. On energy and pipelines, which should theoretically be a strength for the Conservative leader, the Liberal leader still holds a fourteen point edge, 43% to 29%.
We do not know whether an early election is coming or not, but if one is called, Carney will be starting with another comfortable lead, much like he did in the last campaign. The key difference this time is that Canadians have now had nearly a full year of Carney’s leadership to judge how he has managed, and would continue to manage, the country.
Given the surge in Liberal polling and Carney’s strong personal approvals, it is likely safe to say that the only factors that could pull those numbers down at the moment are time, or an early election call, should Canadians decide to punish the Liberal government for perceived opportunism.
