As August Ends, Liberals Remain Ahead
Meanwhile, Liaison and Abacus are telling two very different stories in Ontario
Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for August 30, 2025!
This week we had two new polls with the weekly Nanos update, alongside Abacus.
Nanos found the Liberals at 44% (unchanged from last week), the Conservatives at 34% (+2), and the NDP at 11% (-1). The Bloc and Greens remained unchanged at 6% and 3%, respectively.
Abacus’ poll saw a shift toward the Conservatives compared to their August 7 poll. Their most recent numbers put the Conservatives at 41% (+1), the Liberals at 39% (-4), and the NDP at 7% (-1). The Bloc rose to 7% (+1), while the Greens held steady at 2%.
Before jumping into this week’s model, a quick methodological note about the polling averages.
Now that we are heading into the fall sitting, and several months past the April election, we have introduced date weighting into the model. This gives more weight to recent polls while phasing out older ones, such as Sparks’ May 30 poll or Mainstreet’s June poll.
As a result, the numbers in the model shifted more suddenly compared to last week, but the new results are much more up to date than the previous tracking.
With that, let’s take a look at this week’s model!
