An Independent Alberta? Many Albertans Say They'd Leave
A majority of Quebecers say they would stay following independence, while Albertans are nearly evenly split between staying and moving elsewhere in Canada
New polling from Leger takes a look at Quebec and Alberta to see how many Canadians would stay put or leave their respective provinces should either pursue independence.
First, all respondents were asked whether Canada’s economy would be impacted by Quebec, Alberta, or both leaving the country. In response, 45% said both would have an equally negative impact on Canada, while 33% said Alberta and 8% said Quebec.
They also found that 37% believed both provinces leaving would have an equally negative impact on their household’s well-being, compared to 21% for Alberta and 16% for Quebec, while 26% were unsure.
The survey then asked about Canada’s national identity, with more than half of respondents (54%) saying it would be equally damaging if both provinces left, compared to 17% for Quebec and 15% for Alberta.
On the Albertan side of things, most Albertans say Alberta leaving would have the greatest impact on both their households and the national economy, at 59% and 57% respectively, while another 36% say Alberta leaving the country would have the largest impact on Canadian national identity.
Over in Quebec, 47% say Quebec leaving would impact their household’s well-being, while only 26% say it would affect Canada’s national identity and 18% say it would impact the national economy.
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So, what about leaving the country should either province declare independence, or staying put instead?
Among Quebec respondents, 56% say they would choose to stay in their newly independent country, while only 24% say they would move to another part of Canada. Just 2% said they would move to another country altogether, while 18% were unsure.
Among Albertans, that number is considerably lower. Those who would choose to stay in their newly independent country sit at 39%, while an almost equal share (38%) would choose to move elsewhere in Canada. Just 2% would move to another country, while a slightly larger share, 21%, were unsure.
Between Quebecers and Albertans, the poll found that 52% of New Democrats and 43% of Liberals would choose to move elsewhere in Canada, compared to 28% and 37%, respectively, who would choose to stay. Among Conservatives, however, the preference to remain in their newly independent nation was much stronger, while only 22% would choose to move to another part of Canada.
In the rest of Canada, respondents were much more inclined to stay in Canada rather than leave. Among all respondents, 74% in British Columbia would choose to remain in Canada, compared to 74% in Ontario, 73% in Atlantic Canada, and 66% in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
For those who would choose to move to an independent Alberta, the numbers range from 7% in British Columbia to 10% in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, rising to 17% in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. It is entirely possible that Saskatchewan respondents are pushing that figure somewhat higher than Manitoba respondents, though that is only my assumption.
The share of Canadians who would move to Quebec is astonishingly low, to put it mildly. The figure sits at just 1% in Atlantic Canada, Ontario, and British Columbia, rising slightly to 2% in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
The remaining respondents who provided an answer said they would move to another country, with 2% in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 4% in British Columbia and Atlantic Canada, and 5% in Ontario.
When it comes to the partisan breakdown, an overwhelming majority of Canadians outside Alberta and Quebec who voted Liberal would choose to remain in Canada, with 88% saying so, compared to 82% of New Democrats and 56% of Conservatives. Among Conservative voters, just under a quarter said they would move to Alberta, while another 10% said they would leave the country altogether.