After Years of Control, Ford Faces a Real Fight
A string of weaker polls and collapsing approval ratings are raising new questions about Doug Ford's political future
Well, Doug Ford’s hold on Ontario politics seems to be slipping away bit by bit, with the latest polls showing a drop for the Progressive Conservatives, and the model results are not looking much better as a result.
Liaison’s latest poll has the Liberals at 38% (Unchanged compared to June 15), PCs at 33% (-2), NDP at 24% (+2), and the Greens at 2% (-2). Meanwhile, Other parties were at 3% (+2).
Abacus, in June, found the PCs at 41% (Unchanged compared to May 20), the Liberals at 32% (+1), the NDP at 19% (+2), and the Greens at 5% (-). They also had Other parties at 4% (-1).
Spark Insights also released a poll in early June, with the Liberals at 37% (+7 compared to the previous election results, as there was no previous Spark Insights poll), 37% for the PCs (-6), and 16% for the NDP (-3), while other parties sat at 10%, which includes the Greens.
We also received a Fair Vote/EKOS poll, but those results have not been added into the model because the regional numbers are a bit wonky, and, being from Fair Vote, there is no guarantee that the results are independent from their pro proportional representation polling questions.
Regardless, the PCs were at 32% (-11 compared to the last election), the NDP at 28% (+9), the Liberals at 26% (-4), New Blue at 6% (+4), and the Greens at 5% (-), while other parties sat at 3%.
With all of that said, let’s move on to the model results (Alongside a new interactive map for subscribers!)
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