A Prime Minister Canadians Actually Like?
Love the government or not, voters seem comfortable with the guy at the top
Polling for the Prime Minister and the Liberal party as of late have been quite rosy, despite the fact that the former is nearly a year into his time on the job, and the latter have been in power for more than a decade now.
Yet new polling suggests Carney is as popular as he’s ever been among the Canadian public, with a speech here or there helping to firm up his approvals.
Liaison’s latest polling finds Carney sitting at 64% approval among Canadians, while 33% say they disapprove of his job handling. Approval for Carney is highest in Atlantic Canada and Ontario, where his numbers top out at 70%, while disapprovals sit just below 30% in both provinces.
Carney’s approvals remain well above water even in the most hostile province to Liberal leaders, Alberta. In Alberta, 53% say they approve of Carney’s job handling, compared to 42% disapproval, the highest of any province, yet that still nets Carney a +9% approval in the province.
Despite headlines and commentary saying otherwise, even younger Canadians are overall positive on the Prime Minister, with 58% of those under 34 approving of his job handling. Older Canadians remain some of Carney’s strongest supporters, with 69% of those over 65 approving of the prime minister, while only 28% disapprove.
Liaison is not the only pollster out with new approval numbers. Leger’s latest poll found Carney slightly lower at the national level than Liaison did, with 59% approval, though Carney’s disapproval in Leger’s poll is similar at 34%.
Unlike Liaison’s poll, however, Carney is underwater in Alberta, though only by five points, with 51% disapproving of his job handling and 46% approving.
Leger’s poll also found that Atlantic Canadians were the most agreeable with Carney, with 68% approving of his job handling, similar to Liaison, though Ontario is further down at 59% approval, unlike Liaison’s 70%.
Nevertheless, the same 58% approval that Liaison found among 18-34 year olds shows up again in Leger’s polling, with those between 35-54 being the least approving of Carney at 51% approval, compared to 40% disapproval. Older Canadians remain firmly at Carney’s side at 65%.
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Mainstreet and Abacus Data also looked into Carney’s favourables, although Mainstreet only publicly released a topline number, while Abacus only released net favourables.
Mainstreet’s poll found Carney’s favourables at 64%, while his unfavourables were 33%, leaving the Prime Minister with a net favourable of +31%. Abacus found a smaller net favourable for Carney, though it still sits at +23%, up from the +13% he was at in Abacus’ previous poll.
So what the hell is going on, and why is Carney jumping in the polls? It’s likely a confluence of issues, alongside foreign affairs rearing its head from our southern neighbours once again, but a certain speech Carney made overseas seems to have resonated with the Canadian public.
Mainstreet did us the honours of asking Canadians about Carney’s Davos speech, which received plenty of praise across the political spectrum. Their survey found 74% of Canadians saw all or parts of Carney’s speech in Davos, while 26% did not.
Among those that saw Carney’s speech in full or in part, the survey found 54% saying it made them view Carney much more favourably, alongside another 22% who said it made them view him somewhat more favourably.
Only 22% said the speech made them view Carney much less or somewhat less favourably, with Conservatives making up the bulk of that response. Though, and I cannot provide public numbers as they’re paywalled, a not insignificant share of Conservatives said the Davos speech made them view him more favourably, which might be why the Prime Minister is picking up more support as of late.
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In the end, the impact on vote intentions has been mixed, though the Liberals are broadly up as a result of Carney’s rebounding approvals.
On one end of the spectrum, you have pollsters like EKOS, Mainstreet, and Leger who have the Liberals above their 2025 finish of 44%, while Mainstreet and EKOS in particular give the Liberals huge leads of +15 and +14, respectively.
On the other end, you have pollsters like Angus Reid, Abacus, and Nanos, who all show the Liberals leading the Conservatives by three to four points, but not anywhere close to those double-digit leads.
So what’s going on here? It’s a mixed bag for the smaller parties in particular, and there doesn’t seem to be much rhyme or reason to the chaos.
The Bloc is as high as 9% and as low as 5% nationally, with their 2025 result having them at 6%, for context. This week’s Nanos has the Bloc leading the Liberals in Quebec, while other pollsters have the Liberals ahead of the Bloc by double digits.
The NDP is also a confusing story in the making. Mainstreet traditionally has the NDP lower, so 4% from them is eyebrow raising, but not necessarily uncharacteristic. Yet Leger also has the party down at 5%, which should make some Dippers more concerned. Then you have pollsters like EKOS, Nanos, and Angus Reid who all have the NDP in the low teens, while Abacus and Liaison have them at 8%.
The only clear trend is that polls with the Liberals garnering the highest vote shares have the NDP down a lot, while those that have the Liberals at the lowest shares have the NDP performing much better, with EKOS being an outlier here. It’s a somewhat similar situation with the Bloc.
In the end, this is why we use averages, and those averages will be updated and plugged into this week’s subscriber model come Saturday morning, so subscribe to the Substack if you haven’t already, and we’ll wait and see what the future holds.