A Near-Tie In Alberta, But Not On The Model
A close popular vote still delivers Smith a clear advantage in the legislature, according to new polling
New polling released from Liaison Strategies is shining a new light on the state of play in Alberta, with signs initially looking like warning lights for Danielle Smith, but a closer look suggesting it may not be the case.
Smith’s approval as Premier of the province sits at 41%, with her disapproval higher at 46%, leaving her five points in the hole. Her highest disapproval comes from Edmonton, where she sits at a net approval of -26%, which is unsurprising given how heavily the city votes NDP provincially.
Meanwhile, she sits at the breakeven point in battleground Calgary, while being only two points above water in the rest of Alberta. Being even in Calgary is one thing, but the poll suggests Smith is doing poorly in rural Alberta, where she should, theoretically, be polling the best by a fair margin on the approval front.
Nevertheless, the Liaison poll asked Albertans who they say they trust most to manage healthcare, the economy, and the education system.
On healthcare, Nenshi leads Smith by five points, sitting at 39% while Smith is behind at 34%. Another 6% say they would trust Liberal leader Roggeveen, while another 3% opt for Green leader Wilkie or Alberta Party (now the Progressive Tory Party) leader Guthrie. A little over one in ten Albertans are unsure who they would trust on healthcare.
Nenshi leads by a slightly larger six points over Smith on handling the education system, at 39% to 33%, while Roggeveen comes in at 4%. A full 17% of Albertans are unsure who they believe would best handle education.
Smith leads Nenshi by five points on handling the economy, at 39% to 34%, while Roggeveen and Guthrie both come in at 3% each, with another 14% saying they are unsure.
The regionals show little difference between each question, with Smith generally performing best in rural Alberta and being competitive in Calgary, aside from the education question, while Nenshi holds comfortable leads in Edmonton.
Now, let’s look at the near tied topline on the provincial ballot, and take a look at how that poll models out on the Polling Canada Alberta model.
