Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for July 4, 2026!

This past week saw two new polls, the weekly Nanos and Liaison trackers.

Liaison found the Liberals down to 42% (-1 compared to Jun 20), with the Conservatives up to 34% (+2), NDP at 13% (-1), and Bloc at 6% (-). The Greens were stable at 2% (-), as well as the PPC at 2% (-)

Nanos had the Liberals at 44% (Unchanged compared to Jun 19), with the Conservatives down to 30% (-2), NDP at 12% (+1), and Bloc at 7% (-). The Greens remain high at 5% (-), with the PPC stable at 2% (-).

Overall, the Liberals’ national lead remains at ten points over the Conservatives.

Meanwhile, the Liberal lead in Atlantic Canada grew (+4 compared to last week), while their lead in Ontario dropped (-1), as did their lead in British Columbia (-1). The Conservative lead narrowed slightly in the central Prairies (-1), but recovered some ground in Alberta (+2).

Now let’s take a brief look at the rest of the numbers!

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New polling from Nanos Research takes a look at how Canadians feel about the unity of our country, and specifically what threats they believe could put that unity at risk.

Overall, 37% of Canadians say the country is united, while 26% say it is divided. Another 37% describe Canada as neutral, as respondents were asked to rate the country’s unity on a scale from 0 to 10, with zero meaning very divided and ten meaning very united.

The results were somewhat mixed across the country. Canadians in Atlantic Canada were the most likely to say the nation is united (52%), while those in the prairies were the most likely to say it is divided (39%).

A large share of Canadians landed somewhere in the middle. In Quebec, 40% described Canada as neutral on this question, while 39% of Ontarians shared the same view.

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When Canadians were asked whether the country is more or less united than it was five years ago, a majority said Canada has become less united (55%), while only 33% believe it is more united. Another 12% said the country is about as united as it was five years ago, with little change.

Once again, those in the prairies were the most likely to say Canada is less united than it was five years ago, with 63% saying so. They were followed by 57% of British Columbians and between 51% and 52% of respondents across the rest of the country.

The highest share of Canadians who believe the country is more united came from Atlantic Canada at 38%, followed by 36% in Ontario and 34% in British Columbia.

So what do Canadians see as the biggest reason for this growing disunity? A majority point to our southern neighbours, which is hardly surprising.

With rumours of US funding for Alberta separation groups, alongside the Trump administration’s impact on the Canadian economy more broadly, it is perhaps unsurprising that 54% of Canadians identify influence from the United States as the biggest threat to national unity.

However, nearly as many Canadians (50%) say political polarization within Canada is also contributing to the country’s unity challenges. That may well be the case, given the Liberals and Conservatives continue to command a combined 78% to 80% of vote intention, creating increasingly clear political divisions across the country.

Other issues Canadians believe threaten national unity include the possibility of an Alberta referendum (45%), economic differences between regions (32%), and the actions of the federal government (31%).

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Finally, the survey asked Canadians whether they see themselves as primarily Canadian, equally Canadian and connected to their home province, or primarily identified with their home province.

Overall, 59% of Canadians say they see themselves as primarily Canadian, while 24% say they identify equally with Canada and their home province. Another 13% say they identify primarily with their home province.

The share of those who see themselves as primarily Canadian is highest in Ontario at 80%, followed by 58% in British Columbia and 56% in the prairies. Meanwhile, 33% of Atlantic Canadians say they identify equally with Canada and their home province, along with 31% of respondents in both British Columbia and Quebec.

There is one striking difference in the results, though it is not especially surprising: Quebec. Nearly four in ten Quebecers say they see themselves primarily as citizens of their home province, far above the 15% recorded in the prairies (Which is safe to say that the number is slightly higher in Alberta specifically than it is in Saskatchewan or Manitoba).

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Welcome to the Quebec update for July 1, 2026 - (And Happy Canada Day!)

In the past month, we’ve had about three new polls, so let’s run through them and see where things stand.

Synopsis found the Parti Québécois at 31% (+1 compared to May 9), while the Liberals fell to 25% (-5), and the CAQ made up much of that ground by rising to 21% (+3). The Conservatives were also down slightly to 12% (-1), while Québec Solidaire was the other big winner in Synopsis’ poll, climbing to 11% (+3).

Pallas found the PQ steady at 29% (Unchanged compared to May 8), while the Liberals once again slipped to 25% (-3), and the CAQ edged up to 20% (+1). The Conservatives remained stable at 14% (-), while QS once again received a boost, rising to 11% (+3).

Léger also had the PQ holding steady at 30% (Unchanged compared to May 18), while the Liberals saw a more modest decline than in the other polls, slipping to 27% (-1). The CAQ also dipped slightly to 21% (-1). The Conservatives posted a small gain in this poll, climbing to 13% (+2), while QS remained stable (-).

Now let’s see where the model sits today!

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Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for June 27, 2026!

This past week saw five new polls, the weekly Nanos and Liaison trackers, alongside Abacus, Leger, and Mainstreet.

Liaison has the Liberals at 43% (+2 compared to June 13), Conservatives at 32% (-), NDP at 14% (-), and Bloc at 6% (-). The Greens were at 2% (-), and the PPC also were at 2% (-).

Nanos also saw a slight uptick for the Liberals at 44% (+1 compared to June 12), Conservatives at 32% (+1), NDP at 11% (-1), and Bloc at 7% (-). The Greens ticked down to 5% (-1), with the PPC stable at 2% (-).

Abacus found the Liberals up to 45% (+1 compared to June 2), Conservatives at 37% (+1), NDP at 9% (-2), and Bloc at 6% (-). The Greens were also down to 2% (-1), while the PPC stayed at 1% (-).

Leger saw the Liberals tick down to 48% (-2 compared to June 1), with the Conservatives stable at 34% (-), the NDP at 6% (-), and the Bloc at 6% (-). The Greens ticked up to 4% (+1), while other parties were also up to 2% (+1).

Mainstreet saw quite the jump, with the Liberals at 43% (-3 compared to March 2), Conservatives at 33% (-3), NDP at 12% (+5), and the Bloc at 5% (+1). The Greens were also up to 4% (+2), and the PPC down to 2% (-1).

Overall, the Liberals’ national lead has narrowed to ten points.

The Liberal advantage shrank in Atlantic Canada (down three points compared to last week), while increasing in Ontario (+2) and Quebec (+1). The Conservative lead in Manitoba and Saskatchewan narrowed by five points, while remaining unchanged in Alberta.

Now let’s take a brief look at the rest of the numbers!

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Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for June 20, 2026!

This past week saw two new polls, the weekly Nanos and Liaison trackers.

Liaison saw the Liberals bump up to 41% (+1 compared to Jun 6), while the Conservatives stayed at 32% (-), the NDP dropped to 14% (-1), and the Bloc dipped to 6% (-1). The Greens were also down to 2% (-1), while the PPC remained stable (-).

Nanos also saw the Liberals tick up to 43% (+1 compared to Jun 5), while the Conservatives also ticked up to 31% (+2), and the NDP ticked down to 12% (-1). The Bloc was stable at 7% (-), the Greens stayed at 6% (-), and the PPC remains at 2% (-).

Overall, the national picture remains largely unchanged, with the Liberals holding an eleven point lead over the Conservatives.

At the regional level, the Liberals are up slightly in British Columbia (+1), while their position elsewhere remains mostly unchanged. Meanwhile, the Conservative lead in Manitoba/Saskatchewan narrowed by one point (-1), while their advantage in Alberta increased by one point (+1).

Now let’s take a brief look at the rest of the numbers!

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Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for June 13, 2026!

This past week saw three new polls, the weekly Nanos and Liaison trackers, and this week’s Angus Reid.

Liaison found the Liberals at 40% (-1 compared to May 30), with the Conservatives at 32% (-), NDP at 15% (-1), and Bloc at 7% (+1). The Greens were up to 3% (+1), while the PPC was stable at 2% (-).

Nanos saw the Liberals up to 42% (+2 compared to May 29), with the Conservatives dropping to 29% (-4), with the NDP stable at 13% (-), and Bloc at 7% (-). The Greens were also up again to 6% (+1), with the PPC stable at 2% (-).

Angus Reid found little movement, with the Liberals down to 41% (-1 compared to Apr 20), Conservatives up to 36% (+1), NDP at 12% (-), and Bloc at 7% (-). The Greens were up to 3% (+1), while other parties were down do 1% (-1).

Overall, the Liberals ticked down to 44% this week on the national average, with the Conservatives at 33%, leaving the Liberals eleven points ahead of their rivals.

The Liberals were down this week in Ontario (-5), while remaining largely unchanged everywhere else they hold the lead. The Conservatives saw their lead in Saskatchewan/Manitoba drop this week (-2), while also slipping slightly in Alberta (-1).

Now let’s take a brief look at the rest of the numbers!

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New polling from Research Co is shedding light on how Canadians view our southern neighbours, their tariffs, and where else in the world we should turn in our time of need, including the European Union.

Off the bat, Mark Carney receives higher approval ratings than Pierre Poilievre when it comes to who Canadians trust to handle tariffs imposed by the United States.

Carney earns an approval rating of 60% on this measure, compared to a disapproval rating of 32%, leaving the prime minister 28 points above water. Meanwhile, Poilievre’s numbers are not quite as strong, with 40% approving of his handling of the issue and 46% disapproving, leaving him 6 points underwater.

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When it comes to who Canadians believe we should seriously consider strengthening trade ties with outside the United States, nearly every major country sits comfortably above the line.

At the top of the list are the European Union and the United Kingdom, both at 76% among Canadians who believe we should seriously consider increasing trade with them. Close behind are Mexico, Australia, and New Zealand at 74%, while 71% say the same of Japan.

Perhaps the most interesting finding in this poll is the share of Canadians who would like to see trade with China increase. Among all Canadians, support sits at 59%, while only 28% oppose the idea. That figure is somewhat higher than other polls have suggested, but it also points to a growing share of Canadians who are looking toward China and away from the United States.

Speaking of which, the share of Canadians who say we should seriously consider joining the European Union stands at 50%, while 35% oppose the idea.

Perhaps the most interesting regional divide is not in Alberta, as some might expect, but in Atlantic Canada, where 42% oppose the idea compared to only 34% in Alberta. Meanwhile, the highest levels of support for joining the EU come from Ontario and Quebec, at 55% and 53%, respectively.

Support for joining the EU is also particularly high among Liberal voters, with 64% in favour and only 25% opposed. Compare that to 49% of New Democrats and 44% of Conservatives, and the gap is considerable. However, among Conservative voters, net support for joining the EU sits at zero, meaning just as many Conservatives support joining as oppose it.

However, support for becoming an American state could hardly be lower. Overall, only 20% of Canadians support the idea, while 70% oppose joining the United States.

Alberta records the highest level of support at 24%, compared to 63% who oppose the idea. Quebec and Ontario are slightly more opposed, with 23% and 21% in favour, respectively, compared to 69% and 70% in opposition. Meanwhile, the strongest opposition to joining the United States comes from Atlantic Canada, where support stands at 11% and opposition reaches 82%.

Even by political affiliation there is little support, including among Conservative voters, who are often viewed as the most receptive to the idea of joining the United States. Among Conservatives, support sits at 27% while opposition stands at 67%, compared to 17% of Liberals and 16% of New Democrats.

Lastly, the poll asked Canadians whether American tariffs or the American military pose a threat to Canada today.

Regarding tariffs, more than 80% of Canadians agree they remain a threat to Canada’s economy, compared to just 11% who disagree. On the military front, opinion is more divided, with 50% saying the U.S. military is a threat to Canada’s security, compared to 41% who disagree with that view.

New polling from Ipsos takes a look at how Albertans feel about their provincial leaders, and whether Danielle Smith is simply trying to save her job, alongside some new vote intention numbers.

Overall, Smith posts a net approval rating of -18%, while Naheed Nenshi fares slightly better at -5%, though both leaders remain underwater with Alberta voters.

Smith’s disapproval is driven heavily by Calgary, where she sits at -29%. Her numbers are somewhat better in Edmonton (-15%) and rural Alberta (-10%).

Meanwhile, Nenshi’s ratings are strongest in Calgary, where he sits at -2%, while his approval in Edmonton is actually positive at +1%. Only in rural Alberta does his approval fall into negative double digits, at -12%.

When Albertans were asked whether Danielle Smith wants Alberta to remain in Canada or separate, voters appeared unconvinced by her recent messaging on the issue.

Overall, 48% of Albertans say Smith wants Alberta to separate from Canada, while only 31% believe she wants the province to remain in Canada. The remaining 21% are unsure.

Pluralities in Calgary and the rest of Alberta believe Smith would prefer to leave Canada, while a narrow majority in Edmonton says the same. By party support, roughly two-thirds of NDP voters and nearly half of undecided voters believe she wants to leave Canada, while only about one-quarter of UCP voters agree.

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So, does Danielle Smith want to hold a separatist referendum so Albertans can have a legal say on their province’s future, or is she primarily trying to protect her position as UCP leader and premier?

Most Albertans lean toward the latter explanation, with 52% saying Smith is mainly trying to hold on to her job as premier. That view is shared by 62% of Calgarians and 52% of Edmontonians. Even in the rest of Alberta, more respondents say she is protecting her job than say she is creating a legal avenue for Albertans to decide their future (42% to 38%).

Breaking it down by party, the divide is stark. About 81% of NDP voters say Smith is attempting to protect her job, while 50% of undecided voters agree. Among UCP voters, 67% say she is simply trying to create a legal avenue for Albertans to have their say, while only 16% of undecided voters share that view.

Overall, Albertans do not appear fully convinced by Smith’s rationale for a referendum, and many do not believe she genuinely wants Alberta to remain in Canada. That perception could also be influencing provincial voting intentions.

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The UCP currently leads the NDP 48% to 45% in the provincial vote intention. Compared with the last election, that would leave the UCP down five points, while the NDP is up one point.

In both Calgary and Edmonton, the NDP holds a narrow lead. The Calgary result would be an excellent sign for the party, while the Edmonton numbers are less impressive, though the NDP would still likely retain most of its seats there.

Meanwhile, the rest of Alberta remains strong territory for the UCP, though a 56% to 40% result there would still leave the NDP competitive in several ridings. On that map, places like Red Deer, both Lethbridge seats, and even Lesser Slave Lake could become competitive for the NDP.

While this is only one poll, it shows a familiar pattern in the separation debate. The UCP overwhelmingly dominates among voters who want Alberta to leave Canada, winning 88% of that group, while the NDP picks up about 9%. But among voters who want Alberta to remain in Canada, the NDP leads 59% to 34% over the UCP, and that group represents a much larger share of the electorate.

Research Co.

New polling from Research Co is offering new insight into the situation in British Columbia and how residents currently feel about the political options available to them.

First, David Eby remains the most approved political leader in the field, posting a net approval rating of +13%. That puts him well ahead of Kerry-Lynne Findlay, who sits at -3%, though even she performs worse than Emily Lowan, who currently holds a +4% rating.

The final two leaders, both carrying large shares of undecided or unfamiliar respondents, are Karin Kirkpatrick and Dallas Brodie. Kirkpatrick records a net approval rating of -9%, while Brodie ranks last among the group at -14%.

Research Co also asked British Columbians a series of additional questions.

At the top of the list was whether British Columbia needs a new centre-right party to serve as an alternative to either the NDP or Conservatives. In response, 47% agreed with the idea, while just 29% disagreed.

Another 41% said it was time for the BC Liberals to return as a provincial political party, while 37% saw no need for their comeback. Following the BC United debacle, perhaps there is a reason for that.

Overall, 36% of British Columbians said they were pleased that Findlay was selected as the new Conservative leader, while a smaller 30% viewed her as the premier-in-waiting. The final question asked whether the Conservative Party is a “Free Enterprise” party, with 33% agreeing.

Now let’s move on to the model.

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The Model

We have received two new polls following Findlay’s victory in the Conservative leadership race, along with one final poll conducted before the leadership results were announced.

Angus Reid, the poll conducted before Findlay’s victory, showed the Conservatives at 46% (+2), while the NDP fell to 36% (-6) and the Greens climbed to 13% (+4). Other parties came in at 4% (-3).

Leger found the BC Conservatives at 45% (+5 compared to Apr 6), while the NDP slipped to 41% (-3). The Greens also declined to 8% (-2), while other parties stood at roughly 6% (-1).

Research Co’s poll has the NDP at 42% (-2 compared to Oct 3, 2025), the Conservatives up to 42% (+4), and the Greens down to 9% (-3). The other parties, CNBC and ONEBC, registered 3% (-) and 2% (+1), respectively.

Now let’s move on to the model and map to see where things currently stand!

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Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for June 6, 2026!

This past week saw three new polls, the weekly Nanos and Liaison trackers, alongside Leger.

Liaison saw the Liberals slip to 41% (-2 compared to May 23), while the Conservatives ticked up to 32% (+1), the NDP rose to an eye watering 16% (+5), and the Bloc sat at 6% (-). The Greens remain at 2% (-), while the PPC dropped to 2% (-1).

Nanos found little change this week, with the Liberals at 40% (-1 compared to May 22), Conservatives at 33% (-), the NDP at 13% (-), and the Bloc at 7% (+1). The Greens were stable at 5% (-), and so were the PPC at 2% (-).

Leger’s newest poll has the Liberals topping 50% (+2 compared to April 26), while the Conservatives dropped to 34% (-3), the NDP remained at 6% (-), and the Bloc also sat at 6% (-). The Greens were up to 3% (+1), while other parties remained at 1% (-).

Overall, the Liberals ticked up to 45% this week (+1 compared to last week), while the Conservatives remained stable at 33% (-), leaving the Liberals twelve points ahead.

The Liberals saw their advantage grow in Atlantic Canada (+3) and Quebec (+1), while it declined in British Columbia (-1) and Ontario (-2). Meanwhile, the Conservative lead in Alberta grew (+1), while ticking up further in Saskatchewan/Manitoba (+2).

Now let’s take a quick look at the rest of the numbers, and the brand-new map for subscribers to use!

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New polling from Leger takes a look at Quebec and Alberta to see how many Canadians would stay put or leave their respective provinces should either pursue independence.

First, all respondents were asked whether Canada’s economy would be impacted by Quebec, Alberta, or both leaving the country. In response, 45% said both would have an equally negative impact on Canada, while 33% said Alberta and 8% said Quebec.

They also found that 37% believed both provinces leaving would have an equally negative impact on their household’s well-being, compared to 21% for Alberta and 16% for Quebec, while 26% were unsure.

The survey then asked about Canada’s national identity, with more than half of respondents (54%) saying it would be equally damaging if both provinces left, compared to 17% for Quebec and 15% for Alberta.

On the Albertan side of things, most Albertans say Alberta leaving would have the greatest impact on both their households and the national economy, at 59% and 57% respectively, while another 36% say Alberta leaving the country would have the largest impact on Canadian national identity.

Over in Quebec, 47% say Quebec leaving would impact their household’s well-being, while only 26% say it would affect Canada’s national identity and 18% say it would impact the national economy.

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So, what about leaving the country should either province declare independence, or staying put instead?

Among Quebec respondents, 56% say they would choose to stay in their newly independent country, while only 24% say they would move to another part of Canada. Just 2% said they would move to another country altogether, while 18% were unsure.

Among Albertans, that number is considerably lower. Those who would choose to stay in their newly independent country sit at 39%, while an almost equal share (38%) would choose to move elsewhere in Canada. Just 2% would move to another country, while a slightly larger share, 21%, were unsure.

Between Quebecers and Albertans, the poll found that 52% of New Democrats and 43% of Liberals would choose to move elsewhere in Canada, compared to 28% and 37%, respectively, who would choose to stay. Among Conservatives, however, the preference to remain in their newly independent nation was much stronger, while only 22% would choose to move to another part of Canada.

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In the rest of Canada, respondents were much more inclined to stay in Canada rather than leave. Among all respondents, 74% in British Columbia would choose to remain in Canada, compared to 74% in Ontario, 73% in Atlantic Canada, and 66% in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

For those who would choose to move to an independent Alberta, the numbers range from 7% in British Columbia to 10% in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, rising to 17% in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. It is entirely possible that Saskatchewan respondents are pushing that figure somewhat higher than Manitoba respondents, though that is only my assumption.

The share of Canadians who would move to Quebec is astonishingly low, to put it mildly. The figure sits at just 1% in Atlantic Canada, Ontario, and British Columbia, rising slightly to 2% in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

The remaining respondents who provided an answer said they would move to another country, with 2% in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 4% in British Columbia and Atlantic Canada, and 5% in Ontario.

When it comes to the partisan breakdown, an overwhelming majority of Canadians outside Alberta and Quebec who voted Liberal would choose to remain in Canada, with 88% saying so, compared to 82% of New Democrats and 56% of Conservatives. Among Conservative voters, just under a quarter said they would move to Alberta, while another 10% said they would leave the country altogether.

Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for May 30, 2026!

This past week saw four new polls, the weekly Nanos and Liaison trackers, alongside Abacus, and Pallas.

Liaison found the Liberals stable at 43% (Unchanged compared to May 16), with the Conservatives dropping to 31% (-3), the NDP stable at 11% (-), and the Bloc at 6% (-). The PPC was up to 3% (+1), with the Greens remaining at 2% (-).

Nanos saw the Liberals drop to 41% (-1 compared to May 15), with the Conservatives even at 33% (-), NDP up to 13% (+1), and Bloc at 6% (-). The Greens were also up to 5% (+1), while the PPC was even at 2% (-).

Abacus had the Liberals at their highest yet in their polling at 47% (+1 compared to May 6), with the Conservatives slipped to 35% (-1), NDP were stable at 8% (-), and the Bloc stayed at 6% (-). The Greens were down to 2% (-1), while the PPC stayed at 1% (-).

Pallas gave us an update compared to their January 12th poll, that found the Liberals at 45% (+5), Conservatives at 32% (-5), the NDP stable at 11% (-), the Bloc at 7% (-), and Greens at 3% (-).

Overall, both the Liberals and Conservatives were down one point this week, leaving the Liberal lead over their Conservative rivals stable at eleven points.

The Liberal advantage expanded in places like Ontario (+4) and British Columbia (+2), while it narrowed in Atlantic Canada (-3) and Quebec (-2). Meanwhile, the Conservative lead in the Prairies grew (+3), while remaining unchanged in Alberta.

Now let’s take a quick look at the rest of the numbers.

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Over the last little while, we’ve gotten a number of close polls that have put the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives in contention with one another. As such, let’s take a look at these polls and where they stand today!

Liaison found their latest poll at 37% for the Progressive Conservatives (+1 compared to April 26), 37% for the Liberals (-1), NDP at 20% (-), and 4% for the Greens (-).

Pallas’ data found the PCs at 37% (-3 compared to April 8), with the Liberals up to 32% (+1), the NDP at 24% (+2), and the Greens finishing off at 6% (-).

Abacus saw the Progressive Conservatives slipping to 37% (-2 compared to April 6), with the Liberals jumping to 36% (+5), while the NDP dropped to 17% (-4), and the Greens finished off at 5% (-).

Leger had their last poll at 39% for the Progressive Conservatives (-5 compared to October 20), the Liberals at 34% (+2), the NDP up to 17% (+4), and the Greens down to 6% (-1).

Mainstreet also saw a similar reversal for the PCs, with their numbers sliding to 35% (-13 compared to September 18), with the Liberals up to 31% (+2), and the NDP climbing to 24% (+10), while the Greens finished at 6% (+2).

With all of that said, let’s move onto the model results!

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Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for May 23, 2026!

This past week saw two new polls, the weekly Nanos and Liaison trackers.

Liaison found the Liberals dipping some to 43% (-1 compared to last week), while the Conservatives we’re up to 34% (+1), the NDP up to 11% (+1), and the Bloc at 6% (-). The Greens and PPC were both stable at two percent each.

Nanos had the Liberals at 42% (-4 compared to last week), Conservatives completely unchanged at 33% (-), the NDP back up to 12% (+3), and the Bloc at 6% (+1). The Greens and PPC were both stable at 4% and 2%, respectively.

Overall, the Liberals still maintain a lead of about eleven points on average over the Conservatives, with the NDP picking up another point in the polls.

The Liberal lead across the board has dropped in Ontario (-2), British Columbia (-1), and Quebec (-1). Meanwhile, the Conservative lead in Alberta has seen a downward shift (-2), while also seeing a small decrease in Saskatchewan/Manitoba (-1).

Among sexes, the Liberals hold a fourteen point lead among women (-3), while maintaining a lead of six among men (-1). Finally, by age, the Liberals hold a six point lead among 18-34 year olds (-1), a three point lead among those between 35-54 (-1), and a twenty point lead among those over 55+ (-1).

Now let’s take a quick look at the rest of the numbers.

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Welcome to the Quebec update for May 20, 2026!

In the past month we’ve had about five new polls, so let’s run through them and see where they’re at!

Sypnopsis came out with their first poll since the previous election, with their results showing the Liberals at 30%, PQ at 30%, the CAQ at 18%, the Conservatives at 13%, and the QS at 8%.

Pallas’ most recent poll had the PQ at 29% (Unchanged compared to Apr 14), Liberals at 28% (-4), CAQ at 19% (+5), Conservatives at 14% (-), and the QS at 8% (-3).

Leger’s latest poll had the PQ remaining at 30% (-1 compared to Apr 20), with the Liberals stable at 28% (-), and the CAQ rising to 22% (+5). The Conservatives were down to 11% (-3), while the QS remained at 8% (-).

Mainstreet’s newest poll has a surprise result, with the Liberals at 31% (+2 compared to June 2025), the CAQ jumping to 25% (+9), and the PQ down to 23% (-8). The Conservatives remain generally unchanged at 14% (-), with the QS down to 7% (-1).

The last poll in the order to be released was Liaison, who found the Liberals at 32% (No previous poll to report to), PQ at 32%, the CAQ at 16%, the Conservatives at 11%, and the QS at 7%.

Let’s see where all of these polls put the averages and where those averages take us!

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With the latest federal fundraising numbers now out, let’s take a look at where the parties stand today from Federal down to the provincial levels in British Columbia, Alberta, and Saskatchewan!

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Federal

Starting off with the federal scene, we find the Conservatives continuing, as always, to hold their lead over the Liberals. This time around, their lead sits at $9,430,862 compared to the Liberals’ $6,826,628, giving the Conservatives a lead of more than $2.6M this quarter.

However, that’s still well above any previous quarter of the past few cycles for the Liberals, meaning the Liberals still have plenty of gas in the tank, so to speak, when it comes to moving the party forward.

Meanwhile, the New Democrats find themselves still deep in the hole, especially when it comes to covering those debts they so desperately need to pay down. When it comes to covering those expenses, the NDP finds itself covering another $1.67M, which isn’t the worst, but that also most of the leadership race to boot.

Lastly, the Bloc remains at $329,814, still trundling along as far as party fundraising goes, but nothing too bad by any means. The Greens and PPC, for yet another cycle in a row, have not reported any income.

Now to move onto the rest of the provinces!

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Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for May 16, 2026!

This past week saw four new polls, the weekly Nanos and Liaison trackers, alongside Abacus and Research Co.

Liaison found the Liberals at 44% (-1 compared to May 2), with the Conservatives at 33% (-), NDP at 10% (+1), and BQ at 6% (-). The Greens were steady at 2% (-), as was the PPC at 2% (-).

Nanos meanwhile found the Liberals at 46% (+1 compared to May 1), with the Conservatives also up to 33% (+1), NDP down to 9% (-2), and BQ at 5% (-). The Greens were up to 4% (+1), and the PPC was up to 2% (+1).

Abacus found the Liberals up to 46% (+1 compared to April 22), with the Conservatives stable at 36% (-), NDP at 8% (-), and BQ down to 6% (-1). The Greens were up to 3% (+1), while the PPC was stable at 1% (-).

Research Co.’s newest poll has the Liberals up to 46% (+1 compared to Feb 6), with the Conservatives down to 31% (-1), the NDP up to 11% (+1), and BQ stable at 7% (-). The Greens were also stable at 3% (-), while the PPC was down to 1% (-1).

Overall, the Liberal lead this week sits at eleven points, one higher than they had last week.

The Liberal seat lead grew in Atlantic Canada (+6) and Ontario (+3), while their lead in British Columbia shrank (-2). Meanwhile, the Conservative lead in Saskatchewan/Manitoba shrank (-3), while it stayed the same in Alberta.

Now let’s take a quick look at the rest of the numbers.

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Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for May 9, 2026!

This past week saw four new polls, the weekly Nanos and Liaison trackers, alongside the Leger and Pollara.

Liaison’s survey found the respondents 45% for the Liberals, 33% for the Conservatives, 9% for the New Democrat, 6% for the Bloc, 2% for the Greens and 2% for the PPC.

Nanos found the survey at 45% for the Liberals, 32% for the Conservatives, 11% for the New Democrat, 6% for the Bloc, 3% for the Greens, and 1% for the PPC.

Leger found themselves at 48% for the Liberals, 37% for the Conservatives, 6% for the Bloc, 6% for the New Democrat, and 2% for the Greens.

Lastly, Pollara’s survey found themselves at 47% for the Liberals, 38% for the Conservatives, 7% for the New Democrats, and 6% for the Bloc.

Overall, that leaves the Liberals ahead of the Conservatives by ten points, with the New Democrats further behind at 9%, and the Bloc at 6%.

Now let’s take a quick look at the rest of the numbers.

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Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for April 25, 2026!

This past week saw two new polls, the weekly Nanos and Liaison trackers,

Liaison’s poll for this week found the Liberals up to 45% (+2 compared to Apr 11), with the Conservatives stable at 33% (-), NDP at 10% (-), and Bloc at 6% (-1). The Greens and PPC were stable at 3% and 2%, respectively.

Nanos found the Liberals steady at 46% (+1 compared to Apr 10), Conservatives at 32% (-), NDP at 12% (-), and Bloc at 5% (-). The Greens were stable at 4% (-), with the PPC still down at 1% (-).

Overall, the Liberal lead nationally grew by a couple of points, now sitting at 13 points once again.

The Liberal lead grew in Quebec (+1), while remaining about the same just about everywhere else. The Conservatives saw their lead in Alberta remain stable, while also ticking up one point in the central prairies.

Let’s take a look at this week’s model and the other polls making headlines!

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Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for April 18, 2026!

This past week saw four new polls, the weekly Nanos and Liaison trackers, alongside Abacus and Ipsos.

Liaison found the Liberals ticking down again this week to 43% (-1 compared to Apr 4), with the Conservatives at 33% (-), NDP up to 10% (+1), and Bloc at 7% (+1). The Greens and PPC were stable at 3% and 2%, respectively.

Nanos also saw the Liberals inching down to 45% (-1 compared to Apr 3), while the Conservatives were up to 32% (+1), NDP down to 12% (-1), and Bloc at 5% (-1). The Greens and PPC were stable at 4% and 1%, respectively.

Abacus had the Liberals stable at 44% (Unchanged compared to Mar 24), the Conservatives up to 38% (+1), NDP down to 8% (-1), and Bloc stable at 6% (-). The Greens and PPC were, once again, stable at 3% and 1%.

Ipsos was the only one that found the Liberals up this week at 45% (+1 compared to Feb 26), while the Conservatives dropped to 33% (-3), the NDP up to 9% (+1), and the Bloc stable at 7% (-). The Greens were stuck at 3%, while the PPC was up to 2% (+1).

We also had a BC poll from Mainstreet that found the Liberals at 51% (+4 compared to Mar 13), Conservatives at 32% (-2), NDP at 9% (-1), and Greens at 4% (-).

Overall, the Liberals have seen their lead tick down from thirteen points over the Conservatives to eleven points nationally.

Perhaps surprisingly, this is the first week in which the Liberals’ strongest polling region was not Atlantic Canada, but Ontario. The Liberal lead rose in Ontario this week (+3 compared to last week), while they saw their numbers slip in Atlantic Canada (-9), Quebec (-2), and British Columbia (-1).

The Conservative lead recovered somewhat in the central Prairies (+3), alongside a smaller gain in Alberta (+1).

Let’s take a look at this week’s model and the other polls making headlines!

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