Polling Canada

The Polls Keep Getting Worse for Poilievre

Curtis Fric — Sat, 15 Aug 2026 11:02:22 GMT

Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for August 15, 2026!

This past week saw five new polls, the weekly Nanos and Liaison trackers, Leger, Research Co, and EKOS.

Liaison found the Liberals at 44% (+1 compared to Aug 1), with the Conservatives at 31% (-3), NDP at 13% (+1), BQ at 6% (-), GPC at 3% (+2) and the PPC at 2% (-).

Nanos had the Liberals down to 43% (-1 compared to July 31), with the Conservatives at 29% (+1), NDP at 13% (-), the Bloc at 7% (+1), the Greens at 4% (-), and the PPC down to 1% (-1).

Leger saw the Liberals down to 46% (-2 compared to Jun 22), with the Conservatives at 34% (-), NDP at 8% (+2), Bloc at 6% (-), and the Greens are 4% (-).

Research Co saw the biggest change this week, with the Liberals up to 47% (+1 compared to May 8), Conservatives down to 27% (-4), NDP at 10% (-1), Bloc at 6% (-1), Greens at 5% (+2), and the PPC up to 4% (+3).

EKOS also have a noticeable change in their polling, having the Liberals down to 45% (-1 compared to Apr 22), Conservatives at 27% (-2), NDP up to 17% (+5), Bloc at 4% (-3), Greens at 4% (-), and the PPC at 2% (-).

This week, we saw the Liberal lead nationally rise by three points to end at thirteen points.

The Liberal lead grew in Ontario (+3 compared to last week), British Columbia (+2), and Atlantic Canada (+1). Meanwhile, the Conservative leads shrunk in Saskatchewan/Manitoba (-8) and Alberta (-7).

Now let’s take a brief look at the rest of the numbers!

PQ Maintains Lead as PCQ Surge in Quebec City

Curtis Fric — Wed, 12 Aug 2026 20:53:30 GMT

Welcome to the Quebec update for August 12, 2026

In the past month, we’ve had about three new polls, so let’s run through them and see where things stand.

Synopsis’ latest poll found the PQ at 30% (-1 compared to Jun 7), the Liberals at 26% (+1), the CAQ at 20% (-1), the Conservatives at 15% (+3), and QS at 9% (-2).

Pallas found some movement towards the PQ and Liberals, with the PQ at 31% (+2 compared to Jun 12), the Liberals at 27% (+2), the CAQ at 19% (-1), the Conservatives at 14% (-), and QS at 9% (-2).

Léger’s poll had the PQ at 30% (Unchanged compared to Jun 14), the Liberals at 24% (-3), the CAQ at 20% (-1), the Conservatives at 13% (-), and QS at 11% (+3).

Now let’s see where the model sits today!

Carney’s Honeymoon Shows No Signs of Ending

Curtis Fric — Mon, 10 Aug 2026 19:01:35 GMT

Woah boy, the Liberals are continuing to dominate in the polls with an early start to this week from three different pollsters.

Research Co found the largest difference between the two parties, with the Liberals at 47% and the Conservatives at 27%, a full 20 point difference between the two. They also found the NDP at 10%, the Bloc at 6%, and the Greens at 5%.

EKOS also released a poll this weekend that found the Liberals at an 18-point lead, with the Liberals at 45% and Conservatives at 27%, though their polling found a much more outsized NDP pool at 17%.

Liaison found the two parties a smaller thirteen points apart, with the Liberals at 44% and the Conservatives at 31%, while the NDP and Bloc were at 13% and 6%, respectively.

Leger was the last of the bunch today, with the Liberals holding a 12 point lead in the polls. The Liberals sat at 46% and the Conservatives at 34%, while the NDP finally made it back up to 8% in their polling.

When it comes to who holds the highest approval among Canadians, the clear leader on this metric was Mark Carney, who held an approval rating of 59% and disapproval of 32%, leaving the Prime Minister at a net approval of +27%.

His main opponent was seen less favourably, with Poilievre’s approval at 38% and disapproval at 48%, leaving him underwater with a net approval of -10%. That’s a full 37 point difference between himself and Mark Carney on this front.

Avi Lewis remains broadly unknown among the Canadian populace, but he’s slowly gaining steam. His approval sits at 32% and his disapproval at 37%, leaving him at a net approval of -5%.

Blanchet, May, and Bernier were left at the bottom of the list, with their net approval at an even score, specifically in Quebec, +11, and -26%, respectively.

So how does Carney do against Poilievre on the important issues of the day? Well, the rating on this front goes from a comfortable lead to a massive lead, depending on which issue is being discussed.

For example, on foreign affairs, Carney holds the largest lead over Poilievre, with Carney at 51% and Poilievre at 23%. Similarly, on Canada US relations, Carney still holds onto 50% of Canadians saying he’s better equipped to handle that particular issue than Poilievre is, who sits at 23% as well.

Even on Poilievre’s best possible issue, that being crime and public safety, he’s still beaten out by Mark Carney, with Carney earning 37% of respondents and Poilievre getting another 30%. Likewise, on immigration, Carney has remained ahead of Poilievre, with himself at 40% and Poilievre at 29%.

Lastly, Leger asked a series of questions about which leader Canadians would trust more on each issue, with half of the sample receiving questions about Mark Carney and the other half of the sample receiving questions about Pierre Poilievre.

For example, when asked whether it’s a good policy to allow fewer immigrants into Canada to ease the pressures on Canada’s healthcare and housing, 69% said they believe Carney when he says it’s a good policy for Canada, while only 56% say the same about Poilievre.

Likewise, when asked if Canada needs to significantly increase spending on the military to meet NATO commitments and strengthen the presence in the Arctic, 60% of those who received Mark Carney as an option said that it was a good idea, while 46% of those who received Pierre Poilievre said it was a good idea.

Across the board, Carney continues to hold a higher level of trust among Canadians than Poilievre does. From immigration, to the military, to reaching a trade agreement with the US, Carney consistently holds higher approval.

If Mark Carney’s honeymoon is coming to an end any time soon, it surely isn’t happening in the next little while with poll results like these. Frankly, it may soon be time for the Conservatives to pick a new leader, lest they continue to suffer in the polls as they have been for many months now.

Double Digits, Once Again

Curtis Fric — Sat, 08 Aug 2026 11:02:56 GMT

Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for August 8, 2026!

This past week saw three new polls, the weekly Nanos and Liaison trackers, and Abacus Data.

Liaison saw the Liberals down to 43% (-1 compared to July 25), alongside the Conservatives (-1), with the NDP up to 12% (+1), alongside the Bloc (+1). The Greens were stable at 2% (-), while the PPC was also up to 2% (+1).

Nanos found yet another jump for the Liberals to 47% (+2 compared to July 24) and subsequent drop for the Conservatives (-2), while the NDP was stable at 13% (-), and the Bloc was down to 6% (-1). The Greens were also down slightly to 4% (-1), while the PPC was up to 2% (+1).

Abacus saw little change overall, with the Liberals up to 44% (+1 compared to July 16), Conservatives at 38% (+1), NDP at 9% (-), and Bloc at 6% (-1). The Greens were stable at 3% (-), while the PPC was stable at 1% (-).

Overall, the Liberal lead nationally has ticked back up to ten points over their Conservative rivals.

The Liberal lead increased in Quebec (+2 compared to last week), while remaining stable in the other regions where they currently hold an advantage. The Conservative lead in Alberta ticked down (-3), while also seeing a decline in Saskatchewan/Manitoba (-5).

Now let’s take a brief look at the rest of the numbers!

Poilievre's Image Problem Is Getting Worse

Curtis Fric — Sat, 01 Aug 2026 11:02:49 GMT

Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for August 1, 2026!

This past week saw three new polls, the weekly Nanos and Liaison trackers, and Angus Reid.

Liaison has the Liberals at 44% (+1 compared to July 18), with the Conservatives at 35% (-), NDP at 11% (-1), and the Bloc at 5% (-1). The Greens were stable at 2% (-), while the PPC was down to 1% (-1).

Nanos showed the Liberals at 45% (+2 compared to July 17), with the Conservatives down to 30% (-1), the NDP at 13% (-1), and the Bloc stable at 7% (-). The Greens were back up to 5% (+1), and the PPC was stable at 1% (-).

Angus Reid found the Liberals at 40% (-1 compared to June 10), Conservatives at 36% (-), NDP at 13% (+1), and the Bloc at 6% (-1). The Greens were stable at 3% (-), and other parties made up another 2% of the vote (+1).

Overall, the Liberal lead over the Conservatives remains at nine points.

The Liberal lead grew in Atlantic Canada (+3) and Quebec (+2), while it slipped in Ontario (-2) and British Columbia (-1). Meanwhile, the Conservative lead grew in the central prairies (+3) and Alberta (+2).

Now let’s take a brief look at the rest of the numbers!

After Years of Control, Ford Faces a Real Fight

Curtis Fric — Tue, 28 Jul 2026 11:03:42 GMT

Well, Doug Ford’s hold on Ontario politics seems to be slipping away bit by bit, with the latest polls showing a drop for the Progressive Conservatives, and the model results are not looking much better as a result.

Liaison’s latest poll has the Liberals at 38% (Unchanged compared to June 15), PCs at 33% (-2), NDP at 24% (+2), and the Greens at 2% (-2). Meanwhile, Other parties were at 3% (+2).

Abacus, in June, found the PCs at 41% (Unchanged compared to May 20), the Liberals at 32% (+1), the NDP at 19% (+2), and the Greens at 5% (-). They also had Other parties at 4% (-1).

Spark Insights also released a poll in early June, with the Liberals at 37% (+7 compared to the previous election results, as there was no previous Spark Insights poll), 37% for the PCs (-6), and 16% for the NDP (-3), while other parties sat at 10%, which includes the Greens.

We also received a Fair Vote/EKOS poll, but those results have not been added into the model because the regional numbers are a bit wonky, and, being from Fair Vote, there is no guarantee that the results are independent from their pro proportional representation polling questions.

Regardless, the PCs were at 32% (-11 compared to the last election), the NDP at 28% (+9), the Liberals at 26% (-4), New Blue at 6% (+4), and the Greens at 5% (-), while other parties sat at 3%.

With all of that said, let’s move on to the model results (Alongside a new interactive map for subscribers!)

The Polls Refuse to Budge

Curtis Fric — Sat, 25 Jul 2026 11:01:33 GMT

Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for July 25, 2026!

This past week saw three new polls, the weekly Nanos and Liaison trackers, alongside Abacus.

Liaison saw the Liberals ticking back up to 43% (+2 compared to Jul 11), while the Conservatives were stable at 35% (-), NDP down to 12% (-2), and Bloc at 6% (-). The Greens were also stable at 2% (-), with the PPC up to 2% (+1).

Nanos found a similar trend, with the Liberals stuck at 43% (Unchanged compared to Jul 10), Conservatives at 31% (-), NDP dropping to 14% (-1), and the Bloc at 7% (+1). The Greens remain at 4% (-), and the PPC at 1% (-).

Abacus had the Liberals at 43% (-1 compared to Jul 2), Conservatives at 36% (+1), NDP at 9% (+1), and Bloc at 7% (-). The Greens were also up to 3% (+1), while the PPC was down to 1% (-1).

Overall, the Liberal lead over the Conservatives remains at a nine point spread.

The Liberal lead edged higher in Ontario (+1) and British Columbia (+5), while it slipped in Atlantic Canada (-3) and Quebec (-3). Meanwhile, the Conservative lead in Alberta narrowed slightly (-2), while it increased in the central Prairies (+3).

Now let’s take a brief look at the rest of the numbers!

AI's Canadian Expansion Faces a Skeptical Public

Curtis Fric — Mon, 20 Jul 2026 20:43:49 GMT

New polling from Leger is shedding light on how Canadians feel about data centres and AI as the federal government appears to be stepping up efforts to encourage businesses to establish operations in Canada.

Overall, 46% of Canadians say they have a positive view of supporting AI in Canada through data centres, while 37% believe it is a bad idea.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, older Canadians are more likely to say AI is good for Canada, with 50% holding that view. By comparison, only 41% of Canadians under 34 agree, while a plurality in that age group say it is a bad thing.

This is likely a continuation of a broader trend where older Canadians are either less aware that much of the content they consume is AI generated, or simply do not care, while younger Canadians are far more aware of the growing presence of AI in everyday life and generally have a stronger dislike for that content.

Overall, 44% of the Canadian population say they support the development of AI data centres in their province, while nearly the same amount (42%) oppose the idea.

Perhaps a little surprisingly, 53% of Quebecers support the move while 33% oppose it. (Perhaps this is because both electricity generation and much of the water infrastructure in Quebec rely on hydroelectric power, leading to less opposition to such projects. Who knows though!)

Opposition was highest in the central Prairies and British Columbia, with 53% of those in Manitoba and Saskatchewan and 49% of those in British Columbia opposing the development of data centres in their province.

When it comes to energy use, Canadians are divided over how AI data centres should operate. Only 14% believe they should pay the same electricity rates as any other large business, while 32% say AI companies should cover the full cost of their electricity consumption, along with any infrastructure required to support it.

Another 12% say AI data centres should not only pay for their own electricity, but also be required to use renewable or low emission energy sources. Meanwhile, 31% of Canadians believe AI data centres should not have access to the public electricity grid for this purpose and should instead be required to develop their own energy supply.

When the results are broken down by age, there is very little difference between the various groups.

Finally, Canadians remain concerned about the potential electricity demands of data centres and the environmental impacts they are expected to bring.

A total of 81% of Canadians say they are concerned that their household electricity bills will increase if data centres are built in their province. That is not particularly surprising, given that some areas south of the border have seen electricity prices rise following major data centre development.

Another 79% say they are concerned about the environmental impacts data centres could have, whether through electricity use, water consumption, or the greenhouse gas emissions associated with operating these facilities.

Overall, while Canadians are divided over whether more data centres should be developed in their provinces, their concerns continue to outweigh the perceived benefits. Younger Canadians remain more skeptical than their parents about the advantages of these facilities, yet both generations are largely in agreement when it comes to expecting AI data centres to bear the full cost of their electricity use and infrastructure requirements.

NDP Gains in British Columbia, Yet National Picture Remains Stable

Curtis Fric — Sat, 18 Jul 2026 11:01:54 GMT

Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for July 18, 2026!

This past week saw two new polls, the weekly Nanos and Liaison trackers.

Liaison has the Liberals at 41% (-2 compared to July 4), with the Conservatives at 35% (+1), the NDP at 14% (-), and the Bloc at 6% (-). The Greens were stable at 2% (-), while the PPC remained at 1% (-).

Nanos has the Liberals at 43% (+2 compared to July 3), the Conservatives at 31% (-1), the NDP at 15% (-), and the Bloc at 6% (-). The Greens remained at 4% (-), while the PPC stayed at 1% (-).

Overall, the situation remains the same, with the national average showing a Liberal lead of nine points.

At the regional level, the Liberals were up in Atlantic Canada (+2 compared to last week), Quebec (+2), and Ontario (+1), while their lead narrowed in British Columbia (-3).

The Conservatives saw their lead in Alberta increase slightly (+1), while remaining unchanged in Saskatchewan/Manitoba.

Now let’s take a brief look at the rest of the numbers!

Canadians Are Ready for a Canadian Space Age

Curtis Fric — Thu, 16 Jul 2026 20:22:14 GMT

New polling from Abacus Data is offering new insight into whether Canadians believe the country needs a new spaceport, and more importantly, how they feel about the idea.

More than 80% of Canadians say it is important for Canada to build infrastructure that strengthens our security and sovereignty as a nation, while another 70% believe it is important for Canada to participate in international space missions and similar initiatives.

Meanwhile, 62% say it is important to use space as a driver of jobs and economic growth, while 59% believe it is important for Canada to maintain a strong national space program. Along those same lines, 56% say it is important to expand Canada's space infrastructure, while 54% believe it is important for Canada to compete with other countries in the global space economy.

With a new spaceport under construction in Canso, Nova Scotia, and the Canadian government investing $200 million into the project, Canadians generally view the initiative as being beneficial for the country.

When asked about expanding Canada’s space and defence capabilities, 67% said it was a good thing, while only 6% said it was bad, with the remaining 20% saying they were neutral on the issue. Similarly, 65% said competing in the global space economy is a good thing, compared to 7% who said it would be bad and 21% who said they were neutral.

Voters from every major party viewed the proposals positively, with Liberal and NDP voters leading the way. Among Liberal supporters, 76% said competing in the global space economy was a good thing, followed by 70% of New Democrats. Conservative voters were somewhat lower at 60%. Likewise, 78% of Liberals and 69% of New Democrats said it is important to expand Canada’s space and defence capabilities, compared to 62% of Conservatives.

When it comes to how comfortable Canadians are with the different purposes a spaceport could serve, support rarely drops below 70%. For instance, 68% said they would be comfortable with supporting commercial space activity at the spaceport, while 70% said they would be comfortable supporting both government and private sector space missions.

Support climbs even higher for other uses. About 73% said they would be comfortable launching satellites into space, while 74% said they would be comfortable supporting Canadian companies that require access to space. Near the top of the list, 78% said they would be comfortable supporting scientific research missions, while 80% said they would be comfortable supporting Canada's defence needs.

Finally, Abacus found broad support across several different proposals.

When it comes to developing launch infrastructure that strengthens Canada’s economic and security interests, 70% support the idea while only 7% oppose it. Similarly, 68% support Canada having the ability to launch satellites from Canadian soil, while only 9% oppose the proposal.

Even the lowest supported proposal still receives 63% backing. That proposal is the idea that Nova Scotia is the best location in Canada for orbital launches, largely because of its proximity to the ocean and the number of available orbital paths for satellites and similar missions. Only 6% oppose the idea, while 19% remain neutral.

Personally, I believe Canada needs a competitive and capable spaceport, and that more should be built in the future if the need arises. While many people see space as something distant that has little effect on everyday life, the technological advances made through space exploration have shaped our daily lives in countless ways. Providing Canadians with a domestic launch site is another important step in that direction.

Conservatives Climb Back Into Triple Digits

Curtis Fric — Sat, 11 Jul 2026 11:30:28 GMT

Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for July 11, 2026!

This past week saw two new polls, the weekly Nanos and Liaison trackers.

Liaison finished with the Liberals at 43% (+1 compared to Jun 27), with the Conservatives at 34% (-), NDP at 14% (+1), and Bloc at 6% (-). The Greens were stable at 2% (-), and the PPC was down to 1% (-1).

Nanos saw the Liberals drop a fair bit to 41% (-3 compared to Jun 26), with the Conservatives up to 32% (+2), NDP at 15% (+3), and Bloc at 6% (-1). The Greens were also down to 4% (-1), with the PPC also at 1% (-1).

Overall, the Liberal lead has dipped this week to a nine point lead over the Conservatives, down from the previous ten point lead last week.

The Liberals remain stable in Atlantic Canada and Ontario, while their lead has dipped in Quebec (-2 compared to last week), British Columbia (-3), Alberta (-4), and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (-4).

Now let’s take a brief look at the rest of the numbers!

One Calm Federal Race, Four Wild Provincial Polls

Curtis Fric — Sat, 04 Jul 2026 11:30:32 GMT

Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for July 4, 2026!

This past week saw two new polls, the weekly Nanos and Liaison trackers.

Liaison found the Liberals down to 42% (-1 compared to Jun 20), with the Conservatives up to 34% (+2), NDP at 13% (-1), and Bloc at 6% (-). The Greens were stable at 2% (-), as well as the PPC at 2% (-)

Nanos had the Liberals at 44% (Unchanged compared to Jun 19), with the Conservatives down to 30% (-2), NDP at 12% (+1), and Bloc at 7% (-). The Greens remain high at 5% (-), with the PPC stable at 2% (-).

Overall, the Liberals’ national lead remains at ten points over the Conservatives.

Meanwhile, the Liberal lead in Atlantic Canada grew (+4 compared to last week), while their lead in Ontario dropped (-1), as did their lead in British Columbia (-1). The Conservative lead narrowed slightly in the central Prairies (-1), but recovered some ground in Alberta (+2).

Now let’s take a brief look at the rest of the numbers!

What's Pulling Canada Apart? Canadians Point South

Curtis Fric — Thu, 02 Jul 2026 19:11:20 GMT

New polling from Nanos Research takes a look at how Canadians feel about the unity of our country, and specifically what threats they believe could put that unity at risk.

Overall, 37% of Canadians say the country is united, while 26% say it is divided. Another 37% describe Canada as neutral, as respondents were asked to rate the country’s unity on a scale from 0 to 10, with zero meaning very divided and ten meaning very united.

The results were somewhat mixed across the country. Canadians in Atlantic Canada were the most likely to say the nation is united (52%), while those in the prairies were the most likely to say it is divided (39%).

A large share of Canadians landed somewhere in the middle. In Quebec, 40% described Canada as neutral on this question, while 39% of Ontarians shared the same view.

When Canadians were asked whether the country is more or less united than it was five years ago, a majority said Canada has become less united (55%), while only 33% believe it is more united. Another 12% said the country is about as united as it was five years ago, with little change.

Once again, those in the prairies were the most likely to say Canada is less united than it was five years ago, with 63% saying so. They were followed by 57% of British Columbians and between 51% and 52% of respondents across the rest of the country.

The highest share of Canadians who believe the country is more united came from Atlantic Canada at 38%, followed by 36% in Ontario and 34% in British Columbia.

So what do Canadians see as the biggest reason for this growing disunity? A majority point to our southern neighbours, which is hardly surprising.

With rumours of US funding for Alberta separation groups, alongside the Trump administration’s impact on the Canadian economy more broadly, it is perhaps unsurprising that 54% of Canadians identify influence from the United States as the biggest threat to national unity.

However, nearly as many Canadians (50%) say political polarization within Canada is also contributing to the country’s unity challenges. That may well be the case, given the Liberals and Conservatives continue to command a combined 78% to 80% of vote intention, creating increasingly clear political divisions across the country.

Other issues Canadians believe threaten national unity include the possibility of an Alberta referendum (45%), economic differences between regions (32%), and the actions of the federal government (31%).

Finally, the survey asked Canadians whether they see themselves as primarily Canadian, equally Canadian and connected to their home province, or primarily identified with their home province.

Overall, 59% of Canadians say they see themselves as primarily Canadian, while 24% say they identify equally with Canada and their home province. Another 13% say they identify primarily with their home province.

The share of those who see themselves as primarily Canadian is highest in Ontario at 80%, followed by 58% in British Columbia and 56% in the prairies. Meanwhile, 33% of Atlantic Canadians say they identify equally with Canada and their home province, along with 31% of respondents in both British Columbia and Quebec.

There is one striking difference in the results, though it is not especially surprising: Quebec. Nearly four in ten Quebecers say they see themselves primarily as citizens of their home province, far above the 15% recorded in the prairies (Which is safe to say that the number is slightly higher in Alberta specifically than it is in Saskatchewan or Manitoba).

The PQ Is Holding On, But the Race Is Far From Over

Curtis Fric — Wed, 01 Jul 2026 11:02:31 GMT

Welcome to the Quebec update for July 1, 2026 - (And Happy Canada Day!)

In the past month, we’ve had about three new polls, so let’s run through them and see where things stand.

Synopsis found the Parti Québécois at 31% (+1 compared to May 9), while the Liberals fell to 25% (-5), and the CAQ made up much of that ground by rising to 21% (+3). The Conservatives were also down slightly to 12% (-1), while Québec Solidaire was the other big winner in Synopsis’ poll, climbing to 11% (+3).

Pallas found the PQ steady at 29% (Unchanged compared to May 8), while the Liberals once again slipped to 25% (-3), and the CAQ edged up to 20% (+1). The Conservatives remained stable at 14% (-), while QS once again received a boost, rising to 11% (+3).

Léger also had the PQ holding steady at 30% (Unchanged compared to May 18), while the Liberals saw a more modest decline than in the other polls, slipping to 27% (-1). The CAQ also dipped slightly to 21% (-1). The Conservatives posted a small gain in this poll, climbing to 13% (+2), while QS remained stable (-).

Now let’s see where the model sits today!

Alberta Separatism Sits At 15% In Latest Poll

Curtis Fric — Sat, 27 Jun 2026 11:02:36 GMT

Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for June 27, 2026!

This past week saw five new polls, the weekly Nanos and Liaison trackers, alongside Abacus, Leger, and Mainstreet.

Liaison has the Liberals at 43% (+2 compared to June 13), Conservatives at 32% (-), NDP at 14% (-), and Bloc at 6% (-). The Greens were at 2% (-), and the PPC also were at 2% (-).

Nanos also saw a slight uptick for the Liberals at 44% (+1 compared to June 12), Conservatives at 32% (+1), NDP at 11% (-1), and Bloc at 7% (-). The Greens ticked down to 5% (-1), with the PPC stable at 2% (-).

Abacus found the Liberals up to 45% (+1 compared to June 2), Conservatives at 37% (+1), NDP at 9% (-2), and Bloc at 6% (-). The Greens were also down to 2% (-1), while the PPC stayed at 1% (-).

Leger saw the Liberals tick down to 48% (-2 compared to June 1), with the Conservatives stable at 34% (-), the NDP at 6% (-), and the Bloc at 6% (-). The Greens ticked up to 4% (+1), while other parties were also up to 2% (+1).

Mainstreet saw quite the jump, with the Liberals at 43% (-3 compared to March 2), Conservatives at 33% (-3), NDP at 12% (+5), and the Bloc at 5% (+1). The Greens were also up to 4% (+2), and the PPC down to 2% (-1).

Overall, the Liberals’ national lead has narrowed to ten points.

The Liberal advantage shrank in Atlantic Canada (down three points compared to last week), while increasing in Ontario (+2) and Quebec (+1). The Conservative lead in Manitoba and Saskatchewan narrowed by five points, while remaining unchanged in Alberta.

Now let’s take a brief look at the rest of the numbers!

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NDP Struggles Continue Despite Isolated Polling Gains

Curtis Fric — Sat, 20 Jun 2026 11:02:43 GMT

Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for June 20, 2026!

This past week saw two new polls, the weekly Nanos and Liaison trackers.

Liaison saw the Liberals bump up to 41% (+1 compared to Jun 6), while the Conservatives stayed at 32% (-), the NDP dropped to 14% (-1), and the Bloc dipped to 6% (-1). The Greens were also down to 2% (-1), while the PPC remained stable (-).

Nanos also saw the Liberals tick up to 43% (+1 compared to Jun 5), while the Conservatives also ticked up to 31% (+2), and the NDP ticked down to 12% (-1). The Bloc was stable at 7% (-), the Greens stayed at 6% (-), and the PPC remains at 2% (-).

Overall, the national picture remains largely unchanged, with the Liberals holding an eleven point lead over the Conservatives.

At the regional level, the Liberals are up slightly in British Columbia (+1), while their position elsewhere remains mostly unchanged. Meanwhile, the Conservative lead in Manitoba/Saskatchewan narrowed by one point (-1), while their advantage in Alberta increased by one point (+1).

Now let’s take a brief look at the rest of the numbers!

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Liberals Drop To Three Month Low

Curtis Fric — Sat, 13 Jun 2026 11:02:38 GMT

Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for June 13, 2026!

This past week saw three new polls, the weekly Nanos and Liaison trackers, and this week’s Angus Reid.

Liaison found the Liberals at 40% (-1 compared to May 30), with the Conservatives at 32% (-), NDP at 15% (-1), and Bloc at 7% (+1). The Greens were up to 3% (+1), while the PPC was stable at 2% (-).

Nanos saw the Liberals up to 42% (+2 compared to May 29), with the Conservatives dropping to 29% (-4), with the NDP stable at 13% (-), and Bloc at 7% (-). The Greens were also up again to 6% (+1), with the PPC stable at 2% (-).

Angus Reid found little movement, with the Liberals down to 41% (-1 compared to Apr 20), Conservatives up to 36% (+1), NDP at 12% (-), and Bloc at 7% (-). The Greens were up to 3% (+1), while other parties were down do 1% (-1).

Overall, the Liberals ticked down to 44% this week on the national average, with the Conservatives at 33%, leaving the Liberals eleven points ahead of their rivals.

The Liberals were down this week in Ontario (-5), while remaining largely unchanged everywhere else they hold the lead. The Conservatives saw their lead in Saskatchewan/Manitoba drop this week (-2), while also slipping slightly in Alberta (-1).

Now let’s take a brief look at the rest of the numbers!

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Nearly Half of Canadians Open to Joining the European Union

Curtis Fric — Thu, 11 Jun 2026 19:54:30 GMT

New polling from Research Co is shedding light on how Canadians view our southern neighbours, their tariffs, and where else in the world we should turn in our time of need, including the European Union.

Off the bat, Mark Carney receives higher approval ratings than Pierre Poilievre when it comes to who Canadians trust to handle tariffs imposed by the United States.

Carney earns an approval rating of 60% on this measure, compared to a disapproval rating of 32%, leaving the prime minister 28 points above water. Meanwhile, Poilievre’s numbers are not quite as strong, with 40% approving of his handling of the issue and 46% disapproving, leaving him 6 points underwater.

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When it comes to who Canadians believe we should seriously consider strengthening trade ties with outside the United States, nearly every major country sits comfortably above the line.

At the top of the list are the European Union and the United Kingdom, both at 76% among Canadians who believe we should seriously consider increasing trade with them. Close behind are Mexico, Australia, and New Zealand at 74%, while 71% say the same of Japan.

Perhaps the most interesting finding in this poll is the share of Canadians who would like to see trade with China increase. Among all Canadians, support sits at 59%, while only 28% oppose the idea. That figure is somewhat higher than other polls have suggested, but it also points to a growing share of Canadians who are looking toward China and away from the United States.

Speaking of which, the share of Canadians who say we should seriously consider joining the European Union stands at 50%, while 35% oppose the idea.

Perhaps the most interesting regional divide is not in Alberta, as some might expect, but in Atlantic Canada, where 42% oppose the idea compared to only 34% in Alberta. Meanwhile, the highest levels of support for joining the EU come from Ontario and Quebec, at 55% and 53%, respectively.

Support for joining the EU is also particularly high among Liberal voters, with 64% in favour and only 25% opposed. Compare that to 49% of New Democrats and 44% of Conservatives, and the gap is considerable. However, among Conservative voters, net support for joining the EU sits at zero, meaning just as many Conservatives support joining as oppose it.

However, support for becoming an American state could hardly be lower. Overall, only 20% of Canadians support the idea, while 70% oppose joining the United States.

Alberta records the highest level of support at 24%, compared to 63% who oppose the idea. Quebec and Ontario are slightly more opposed, with 23% and 21% in favour, respectively, compared to 69% and 70% in opposition. Meanwhile, the strongest opposition to joining the United States comes from Atlantic Canada, where support stands at 11% and opposition reaches 82%.

Even by political affiliation there is little support, including among Conservative voters, who are often viewed as the most receptive to the idea of joining the United States. Among Conservatives, support sits at 27% while opposition stands at 67%, compared to 17% of Liberals and 16% of New Democrats.

Lastly, the poll asked Canadians whether American tariffs or the American military pose a threat to Canada today.

Regarding tariffs, more than 80% of Canadians agree they remain a threat to Canada’s economy, compared to just 11% who disagree. On the military front, opinion is more divided, with 50% saying the U.S. military is a threat to Canada’s security, compared to 41% who disagree with that view.

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More Albertans Think Smith Wants Separation

Curtis Fric — Wed, 10 Jun 2026 20:12:13 GMT

New polling from Ipsos takes a look at how Albertans feel about their provincial leaders, and whether Danielle Smith is simply trying to save her job, alongside some new vote intention numbers.

Overall, Smith posts a net approval rating of -18%, while Naheed Nenshi fares slightly better at -5%, though both leaders remain underwater with Alberta voters.

Smith’s disapproval is driven heavily by Calgary, where she sits at -29%. Her numbers are somewhat better in Edmonton (-15%) and rural Alberta (-10%).

Meanwhile, Nenshi’s ratings are strongest in Calgary, where he sits at -2%, while his approval in Edmonton is actually positive at +1%. Only in rural Alberta does his approval fall into negative double digits, at -12%.

When Albertans were asked whether Danielle Smith wants Alberta to remain in Canada or separate, voters appeared unconvinced by her recent messaging on the issue.

Overall, 48% of Albertans say Smith wants Alberta to separate from Canada, while only 31% believe she wants the province to remain in Canada. The remaining 21% are unsure.

Pluralities in Calgary and the rest of Alberta believe Smith would prefer to leave Canada, while a narrow majority in Edmonton says the same. By party support, roughly two-thirds of NDP voters and nearly half of undecided voters believe she wants to leave Canada, while only about one-quarter of UCP voters agree.

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So, does Danielle Smith want to hold a separatist referendum so Albertans can have a legal say on their province’s future, or is she primarily trying to protect her position as UCP leader and premier?

Most Albertans lean toward the latter explanation, with 52% saying Smith is mainly trying to hold on to her job as premier. That view is shared by 62% of Calgarians and 52% of Edmontonians. Even in the rest of Alberta, more respondents say she is protecting her job than say she is creating a legal avenue for Albertans to decide their future (42% to 38%).

Breaking it down by party, the divide is stark. About 81% of NDP voters say Smith is attempting to protect her job, while 50% of undecided voters agree. Among UCP voters, 67% say she is simply trying to create a legal avenue for Albertans to have their say, while only 16% of undecided voters share that view.

Overall, Albertans do not appear fully convinced by Smith’s rationale for a referendum, and many do not believe she genuinely wants Alberta to remain in Canada. That perception could also be influencing provincial voting intentions.

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The UCP currently leads the NDP 48% to 45% in the provincial vote intention. Compared with the last election, that would leave the UCP down five points, while the NDP is up one point.

In both Calgary and Edmonton, the NDP holds a narrow lead. The Calgary result would be an excellent sign for the party, while the Edmonton numbers are less impressive, though the NDP would still likely retain most of its seats there.

Meanwhile, the rest of Alberta remains strong territory for the UCP, though a 56% to 40% result there would still leave the NDP competitive in several ridings. On that map, places like Red Deer, both Lethbridge seats, and even Lesser Slave Lake could become competitive for the NDP.

While this is only one poll, it shows a familiar pattern in the separation debate. The UCP overwhelmingly dominates among voters who want Alberta to leave Canada, winning 88% of that group, while the NDP picks up about 9%. But among voters who want Alberta to remain in Canada, the NDP leads 59% to 34% over the UCP, and that group represents a much larger share of the electorate.

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Findlay's Conservatives Pull Ahead in Latest BC Model

Curtis Fric — Mon, 08 Jun 2026 21:16:08 GMT

Research Co.

New polling from Research Co is offering new insight into the situation in British Columbia and how residents currently feel about the political options available to them.

First, David Eby remains the most approved political leader in the field, posting a net approval rating of +13%. That puts him well ahead of Kerry-Lynne Findlay, who sits at -3%, though even she performs worse than Emily Lowan, who currently holds a +4% rating.

The final two leaders, both carrying large shares of undecided or unfamiliar respondents, are Karin Kirkpatrick and Dallas Brodie. Kirkpatrick records a net approval rating of -9%, while Brodie ranks last among the group at -14%.

Research Co also asked British Columbians a series of additional questions.

At the top of the list was whether British Columbia needs a new centre-right party to serve as an alternative to either the NDP or Conservatives. In response, 47% agreed with the idea, while just 29% disagreed.

Another 41% said it was time for the BC Liberals to return as a provincial political party, while 37% saw no need for their comeback. Following the BC United debacle, perhaps there is a reason for that.

Overall, 36% of British Columbians said they were pleased that Findlay was selected as the new Conservative leader, while a smaller 30% viewed her as the premier-in-waiting. The final question asked whether the Conservative Party is a “Free Enterprise” party, with 33% agreeing.

Now let’s move on to the model.

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The Model

We have received two new polls following Findlay’s victory in the Conservative leadership race, along with one final poll conducted before the leadership results were announced.

Angus Reid, the poll conducted before Findlay’s victory, showed the Conservatives at 46% (+2), while the NDP fell to 36% (-6) and the Greens climbed to 13% (+4). Other parties came in at 4% (-3).

Leger found the BC Conservatives at 45% (+5 compared to Apr 6), while the NDP slipped to 41% (-3). The Greens also declined to 8% (-2), while other parties stood at roughly 6% (-1).

Research Co’s poll has the NDP at 42% (-2 compared to Oct 3, 2025), the Conservatives up to 42% (+4), and the Greens down to 9% (-3). The other parties, CNBC and ONEBC, registered 3% (-) and 2% (+1), respectively.

Now let’s move on to the model and map to see where things currently stand!