Welcome to the Quebec update for May 20, 2026!

In the past month we’ve had about five new polls, so let’s run through them and see where they’re at!

Sypnopsis came out with their first poll since the previous election, with their results showing the Liberals at 30%, PQ at 30%, the CAQ at 18%, the Conservatives at 13%, and the QS at 8%.

Pallas’ most recent poll had the PQ at 29% (Unchanged compared to Apr 14), Liberals at 28% (-4), CAQ at 19% (+5), Conservatives at 14% (-), and the QS at 8% (-3).

Leger’s latest poll had the PQ remaining at 30% (-1 compared to Apr 20), with the Liberals stable at 28% (-), and the CAQ rising to 22% (+5). The Conservatives were down to 11% (-3), while the QS remained at 8% (-).

Mainstreet’s newest poll has a surprise result, with the Liberals at 31% (+2 compared to June 2025), the CAQ jumping to 25% (+9), and the PQ down to 23% (-8). The Conservatives remain generally unchanged at 14% (-), with the QS down to 7% (-1).

The last poll in the order to be released was Liaison, who found the Liberals at 32% (No previous poll to report to), PQ at 32%, the CAQ at 16%, the Conservatives at 11%, and the QS at 7%.

Let’s see where all of these polls put the averages and where those averages take us!

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With the latest federal fundraising numbers now out, let’s take a look at where the parties stand today from Federal down to the provincial levels in British Columbia, Alberta, and Saskatchewan!

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Federal

Starting off with the federal scene, we find the Conservatives continuing, as always, to hold their lead over the Liberals. This time around, their lead sits at $9,430,862 compared to the Liberals’ $6,826,628, giving the Conservatives a lead of more than $2.6M this quarter.

However, that’s still well above any previous quarter of the past few cycles for the Liberals, meaning the Liberals still have plenty of gas in the tank, so to speak, when it comes to moving the party forward.

Meanwhile, the New Democrats find themselves still deep in the hole, especially when it comes to covering those debts they so desperately need to pay down. When it comes to covering those expenses, the NDP finds itself covering another $1.67M, which isn’t the worst, but that also most of the leadership race to boot.

Lastly, the Bloc remains at $329,814, still trundling along as far as party fundraising goes, but nothing too bad by any means. The Greens and PPC, for yet another cycle in a row, have not reported any income.

Now to move onto the rest of the provinces!

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Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for May 16, 2026!

This past week saw four new polls, the weekly Nanos and Liaison trackers, alongside Abacus and Research Co.

Liaison found the Liberals at 44% (-1 compared to May 2), with the Conservatives at 33% (-), NDP at 10% (+1), and BQ at 6% (-). The Greens were steady at 2% (-), as was the PPC at 2% (-).

Nanos meanwhile found the Liberals at 46% (+1 compared to May 1), with the Conservatives also up to 33% (+1), NDP down to 9% (-2), and BQ at 5% (-). The Greens were up to 4% (+1), and the PPC was up to 2% (+1).

Abacus found the Liberals up to 46% (+1 compared to April 22), with the Conservatives stable at 36% (-), NDP at 8% (-), and BQ down to 6% (-1). The Greens were up to 3% (+1), while the PPC was stable at 1% (-).

Research Co.’s newest poll has the Liberals up to 46% (+1 compared to Feb 6), with the Conservatives down to 31% (-1), the NDP up to 11% (+1), and BQ stable at 7% (-). The Greens were also stable at 3% (-), while the PPC was down to 1% (-1).

Overall, the Liberal lead this week sits at eleven points, one higher than they had last week.

The Liberal seat lead grew in Atlantic Canada (+6) and Ontario (+3), while their lead in British Columbia shrank (-2). Meanwhile, the Conservative lead in Saskatchewan/Manitoba shrank (-3), while it stayed the same in Alberta.

Now let’s take a quick look at the rest of the numbers.

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Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for May 9, 2026!

This past week saw four new polls, the weekly Nanos and Liaison trackers, alongside the Leger and Pollara.

Liaison’s survey found the respondents 45% for the Liberals, 33% for the Conservatives, 9% for the New Democrat, 6% for the Bloc, 2% for the Greens and 2% for the PPC.

Nanos found the survey at 45% for the Liberals, 32% for the Conservatives, 11% for the New Democrat, 6% for the Bloc, 3% for the Greens, and 1% for the PPC.

Leger found themselves at 48% for the Liberals, 37% for the Conservatives, 6% for the Bloc, 6% for the New Democrat, and 2% for the Greens.

Lastly, Pollara’s survey found themselves at 47% for the Liberals, 38% for the Conservatives, 7% for the New Democrats, and 6% for the Bloc.

Overall, that leaves the Liberals ahead of the Conservatives by ten points, with the New Democrats further behind at 9%, and the Bloc at 6%.

Now let’s take a quick look at the rest of the numbers.

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Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for April 25, 2026!

This past week saw two new polls, the weekly Nanos and Liaison trackers,

Liaison’s poll for this week found the Liberals up to 45% (+2 compared to Apr 11), with the Conservatives stable at 33% (-), NDP at 10% (-), and Bloc at 6% (-1). The Greens and PPC were stable at 3% and 2%, respectively.

Nanos found the Liberals steady at 46% (+1 compared to Apr 10), Conservatives at 32% (-), NDP at 12% (-), and Bloc at 5% (-). The Greens were stable at 4% (-), with the PPC still down at 1% (-).

Overall, the Liberal lead nationally grew by a couple of points, now sitting at 13 points once again.

The Liberal lead grew in Quebec (+1), while remaining about the same just about everywhere else. The Conservatives saw their lead in Alberta remain stable, while also ticking up one point in the central prairies.

Let’s take a look at this week’s model and the other polls making headlines!

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Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for April 18, 2026!

This past week saw four new polls, the weekly Nanos and Liaison trackers, alongside Abacus and Ipsos.

Liaison found the Liberals ticking down again this week to 43% (-1 compared to Apr 4), with the Conservatives at 33% (-), NDP up to 10% (+1), and Bloc at 7% (+1). The Greens and PPC were stable at 3% and 2%, respectively.

Nanos also saw the Liberals inching down to 45% (-1 compared to Apr 3), while the Conservatives were up to 32% (+1), NDP down to 12% (-1), and Bloc at 5% (-1). The Greens and PPC were stable at 4% and 1%, respectively.

Abacus had the Liberals stable at 44% (Unchanged compared to Mar 24), the Conservatives up to 38% (+1), NDP down to 8% (-1), and Bloc stable at 6% (-). The Greens and PPC were, once again, stable at 3% and 1%.

Ipsos was the only one that found the Liberals up this week at 45% (+1 compared to Feb 26), while the Conservatives dropped to 33% (-3), the NDP up to 9% (+1), and the Bloc stable at 7% (-). The Greens were stuck at 3%, while the PPC was up to 2% (+1).

We also had a BC poll from Mainstreet that found the Liberals at 51% (+4 compared to Mar 13), Conservatives at 32% (-2), NDP at 9% (-1), and Greens at 4% (-).

Overall, the Liberals have seen their lead tick down from thirteen points over the Conservatives to eleven points nationally.

Perhaps surprisingly, this is the first week in which the Liberals’ strongest polling region was not Atlantic Canada, but Ontario. The Liberal lead rose in Ontario this week (+3 compared to last week), while they saw their numbers slip in Atlantic Canada (-9), Quebec (-2), and British Columbia (-1).

The Conservative lead recovered somewhat in the central Prairies (+3), alongside a smaller gain in Alberta (+1).

Let’s take a look at this week’s model and the other polls making headlines!

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A new smattering of polls is taking a look at how Canadians feel about the federal government, the idea of sovereignty bonds, and key issues in healthcare.

Nanos’ latest update on public opinion finds a new low in anger and pessimism toward Ottawa.

Today, only 29% of Canadians hold a negative view of the federal government, compared to 62% who have a positive one, saying they are either optimistic or satisfied. Another 5% say they are disinterested in Ottawa, while 4% are unsure how they feel.

This marks a significant improvement compared to a year and a half ago. In January 2025, just 14% were positive toward Ottawa, while 70% held a negative view of some kind. The massive spike in April occurred during the federal election, notably after Mark Carney had been in the job for more than a month.

Given that Carney’s approval ratings remain north of 55%, and in some cases still above 60% more than a year into his tenure, it’s unsurprising that Canadians remain broadly positive toward Ottawa at this time.

Positive sentiment toward Ottawa remains highest in Ontario, British Columbia, and Quebec, while the Prairies remain the most negative toward the federal government. However, negative sentiment in the Prairies now sits at 42%, down from 50% just a few months ago in October.

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Abacus Data also asked a curious question about the idea of a sovereignty bond, which is a bond that individuals and investors could buy into to fund Canadian projects such as infrastructure, economic development, and defence. The idea found support among 55% of Canadians, with only 11% outright opposed and 34% unsure.

That same survey found that most Canadians would prefer funds raised from such a bond to go toward healthcare, affordable housing, and investment in Canada’s energy and resource sectors, at 31%, 29%, and 22% respectively. Another 18% said the money should go toward expanding Canada’s food production capacity, while 18% said it should go to the military (respondents were allowed to select two choices).

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Turning to healthcare, new polling from Ipsos and the Montreal Economic Institute sheds light on how Canadians feel about the system today.

Overall, 56% say they are satisfied with the healthcare system in their province, up from 48% in 2024. Meanwhile, 42% say they are dissatisfied, down eight points over the same period.

The survey also examined how Canadians feel about introducing more private-sector involvement in healthcare. One question asked whether respondents would support a French or Swedish-style model, where private operators manage some publicly funded hospitals while care remains covered and reimbursed by the government. That model received support from 72% of Canadians, while 15% disagreed.

More broadly, 56% of Canadians say governments should allow increased access to healthcare services delivered by private providers, while 24% disagree. Opposition has declined from 32% in 2022, while support has risen from 52% over the same period.

Frustration with the healthcare system remains widespread, with funding often failing to keep pace with demand. As a result, 76% of Canadians believe their province’s healthcare system is too bureaucratic to respond quickly or adequately to public needs, while 16% disagree.

The survey also found that 66% believe healthcare systems should be more decentralized, allowing hospitals greater autonomy and funding based on the services they deliver. Another 16% disagreed.

Altogether, the public remains comfortable with Carney’s federal government, while they’re open to new solutions to pressing issues both economically and in the healthcare space.

It’s been awhile since we’ve taken a look at the polling averages and models in British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec, so let’s take a moment to see where things stand in those provinces today!

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Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for April 11, 2026!

This past week saw two new polls, the weekly Nanos and Liaison trackers.

Liaison saw the Liberals tick down to 44% (-1 compared to Mar 28), with the Conservatives at 33% (-), NDP at 9% (-), and Bloc at 6% (-). The only party to shift up this week were the Greens at 3% (+1), while the PPC was stable at 2% (-).

Nanos found the Liberals dipping to 46% (-1 compared to Mar 27), with the Conservatives at 31% (-1), while the NDP jump to 13% (+2), and the Bloc to 6% (+1). The Greens were stuck at 4% (-), alongside the PPC at 1% (-).

Overall, the Liberal lead of thirteen points nationally remains stable.

The Liberals lost some ground in Atlantic Canada, with their lead shrinking there (-2 compared to last week), while their lead grew in British Columbia (+1) and remained stable elsewhere.

The Conservative lead in the central prairies dipped again this week (-1), while their lead in Alberta followed suit (-2).

Let’s take a look at this week’s model and other polls making headlines!

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In the last few days, we’ve received polling on a number of issues that piqued my interest, so here’s a brief grab bag of polls and how they break down.

Spark Insights released a poll looking into EU membership, something that I’ve written about previously on this Substack, but in short it’s an idea that a sizeable chunk of Canadians are favourable towards, with this poll being no different.

Spark found 58% of Canadians saying that the idea of Canada joining the European Union is worth exploring further, with nearly 60% of Liberals, Bloc, and NDP voters agreeing, while 50% of Conservatives say the same. Another 25% say that it’s a good idea to join the EU outright, most supported by the non-Conservative parties, while 17% say it’s a bad idea, with 33% of Conservatives agreeing.

That same poll also found 64% of Canadians saying that it was a mistake for the United Kingdom to leave the EU, with even 55% of Conservatives agreeing, while 36% say that it was a good decision to leave.

Recent polling out of the UK finds that British residents would be likely to support joining, with polling from February and March finding net leads for rejoining between +8% and +23%.

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Moving onto ALTO, the high-speed rail project that Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives recently came out against in a strange political decision.

Polling from Abacus, conducted for an anti-ALTO group, found 62% of Canadians support the move to build the high-speed rail line, while only 18% say they oppose building it.

Support is naturally highest in Ontario and Quebec at more than 65%, as those two provinces would be the sole beneficiaries of the railway project, although even 62% of Albertans and 60% of British Columbians support the project.

Support for the ALTO line is highest among Liberals at 72%, with Bloc and NDP voters still comfortably in support at 68% and 65%, respectively. Even a majority of Conservative voters (58%) say they support the project, while just one in four oppose it.

The railway project is likely to crop up in the next federal election, given the project isn’t slated to be completed in its entirety until the early 2040s. So, would the project influence the votes of Canadians in the next election?

Overall, a plurality of Canadians (46%) say the project would have little to no influence on their vote in the next election, while 40% say that it would have a great deal or some noticeable level of influence on their vote.

Those in Quebec were the most likely to say that the project would not influence their vote, with 53% saying as much, while all other provinces are more closely split, with those saying the project will not influence the vote outpacing those who say it would.

That split is similar among the partisan breakout, with New Democrats being the only ones more likely to say the project would influence their vote than not.

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Lastly, Nanos finds the share of Canadians who would be willing to enlist in the military, either as an enlistee (full-time) or as a reservist (part-time), in the event that Canada was involved in a major conflict, has grown in the last year.

The share of Canadians who say they agree with the idea that they might be willing to join the armed forces in such a scenario as an enlistee more than doubled from 12% in 2025 to 24% this year, while those who were unlikely to do so dropped from 69% to 50%.

Likewise, the share of Canadians who say they’d be likely to join the Canadian Armed Forces as a reservist in the event of Canada being involved in a major conflict also grew from 19% in 2025 to 32%. The share who were unlikely to agree with that idea dropped from 59% to 42% in the same period.

Overall, regardless of the situation, there was an uptick in the share of Canadians who say they’d view the decision of a loved one or friend joining the armed forces as favourable, rising from 68% last year to 73% this year.

Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for April 4, 2026!

This past week saw five new polls, the weekly Nanos and Liaison trackers, alongside Spark, Abacus, and Leger.

Liaison found the Liberals at 45% (-1 compared to Mar 11), Conservatives at 33% (+1), NDP at 9% (-), and Bloc at 6% (-1). The Greens dipped to 2% (-1), while the PPC was stuck at 2% (-).

Nanos saw the Liberal lead inch back up, with the Grits at 47% (+1 compared to Mar 20), Conservatives at 32% (-1), NDP at 11% (-1), and Bloc at 5% (-). The Greens were stable at 4% (-), alongside the PPC at 1% (-).

Spark had the Liberals stable at 46% (Unchanged compared to Mar 6), Conservatives down to 30% (-1), NDP up to 11% (+1), and Bloc flat at 5% (-). Other parties made up 8% of the vote.

Abacus’ tracking narrowed this past week, with the Liberals down to 44% (-2 compared to Mar 11), Conservatives up to 37% (+2), NDP at 9% (+2), with the Bloc down to 6% (-1). Greens were stable at 3% (-), alongside the PPC at 1% (-).

Leger’s polling found the Liberals maintaining their lead, with the Liberals down to 48% (-1 compared to Mar 2), Tories down to 34% (-1), Bloc up to 7% (+2), and NDP up to 6% (+1). The Greens remain flat at 3% (-).

Overall, the Liberal lead nationally remains stable at thirteen points this week.

The Liberal lead ticked up in Ontario (+2 compared to last week), alongside British Columbia (+1), while their lead dropped in Quebec (-2), and remained stable elsewhere.

The Conservative lead in Alberta has recovered again this week (+3), while their lead in the central prairies has been inching down in return (-1).

Let us take a look at this week’s model and other polls making headlines!

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With Avi Lewis officially taking over the mantle of the NDP leadership, it’s about as good a time as any to take a look at some of his policies and compare them to the feelings of Canadians today.

Immigration

One of Lewis’ top issues when it comes to the economy is immigration, something that has become a bit of a hot button issue in the last few years. After Trudeau launched a campaign to increase immigration to the highest levels Canada has ever seen, and Carney’s subsequent drawdown of that plan, Canadians have grown increasingly sour on immigration writ large.

As per Lewis’ platform, he states, “Many of us are struggling with unaffordable housing, impossible grocery prices, and services that don’t meet our needs. The problem isn’t too many immigrants. The problem is a system designed for corporate profits instead of building a country that works for all of us.”

Recent polling from Nanos Research finds 52% of Canadians say that there should be fewer immigrants brought into the country for 2027 than the combined 765,000 permanent residents and temporary residents, including students and workers. That’s down from a recent high of 64% saying they want fewer immigrants coming to Canada, but it’s still much higher than the post-pandemic low of 34%, when 46% of Canadians were fine with the level of immigration at the time.

Those numbers also come on the back of a Research Co poll from January 2026 that found 48% of Canadians view immigration as having a negative impact on Canada, the highest it’s ever been, while only 34% say they view immigration positively.

Lewis’ platform also states that he wants to “Build a single-tier immigration system with permanent resident status for all and equal rights from day one.” As it reads, it sounds like Lewis’ plan would be to provide temporary foreign workers (TFW) and other individuals who come here to work or study temporarily with permanent residency status, something that many would-be immigrants to Canada spend years trying to achieve.

Nevertheless, a Narrative Research poll from late 2024 found 46% of Canadians saying that Canada would be better served by having fewer TFWs. The only two groups that are higher than TFWs for who Canadians say fewer would better serve the nation are international students at 52%, and refugees at 59%.

Refugees are another topic that would likely come up in the future for Lewis in an election campaign, given his current platform states he wants to, “Double the number of government-assisted refugees to meet Canada’s humanitarian commitments instead of abandoning people fleeing war and violence.”

With 59% of Canadians saying the nation would be better served with fewer refugees present, it’s already off to a rocky start with the majority of the populace. A Nanos Research poll from the same period finds a similar level of discontent with refugees, with that survey finding 56% of Canadians at the time saying Canada should accept fewer refugees and protected persons for the upcoming year, compared to only 10% who say Canada should accept more.

Lastly, recent polling from Leger finds Canadians supporting a series of measures that would enact stricter rules on temporary residents and asylum seekers. For example, 72% support requiring temporary immigrants to live in a province for one year before qualifying for provincial support programs, or 69% saying temporary immigrants and their families should pay fees to use public healthcare or education.

Canadians have, in recent years, soured greatly on immigration and are pushing for more stringent measures to be put in place. Lewis will have an uphill battle on this issue in particular, but it’s not the only one.

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Oil & Gas Pipelines / Climate Change

Onto another major issue that Lewis has long campaigned on, even before his leadership run: climate change and fossil fuels.

Avi Lewis is championing his version of the American idea of a Green New Deal, based off US President FDR’s New Deal program. In short, it would call for a mass phaseout of fossil fuels, the promotion of green energy and electrification, and protections for natural environments.

This sort of politics was much more popular among Canadians back in 2015, when Trudeau first took over, and when Lewis was promoting the NDP’s LEAP manifesto. At the time, Nanos found 67% of Canadians saying that protecting the environment should be the priority, even if it causes slower economic growth and the loss of jobs.

Today, it couldn’t be more different.

The latest iteration of that question found those saying the environment should come first plummeting thirty-two points to 35% of the population, while those saying the economy should come first even if the environment suffers as a result, rocketing thirty-three points to 57%.

Part of Lewis’ platform says, “We also need to tell the truth about what the climate emergency no longer allows. That means straight talk that there will be no federal approvals for new pipelines, offshore oil projects or liquified natural gas terminals.”

Yet again, polling finds Lewis to be on the wrong side of this issue, especially in the face of American belligerence and threats to Canadian sovereignty. Polling from Abacus in early 2026 found net support for a new oil pipeline from Alberta to BC’s coast sat at an eye watering +44%, with net support in Alberta and BC at +72% and +25%, respectively.

That support for new oil and gas pipelines has been maintained during Trump’s second term and Carney’s first government, with Nanos finding 75% of Canadians support a national energy corridor, which would move oil and gas from Alberta to Eastern Canada, back in March 2025. Only 20% opposed the idea at the time.

All that is to say, on the oil and gas front, if Lewis had been leader when Trudeau first came into power, the NDP may have been well situated to gain from a Canadian populace that was much more environmentally minded.

Back in mid-2019, Angus Reid found 33% of Canadians saying climate change and the environment was among the top three issues facing the nation. In the latest Angus Reid poll from early March 2026, the share of Canadians saying the environment or climate change is among their top three issues sat at 14%, compared to 60% who said the cost of living or 40% who said healthcare.

Whether Lewis can successfully twin affordability issues with climate issues in a way that appeals to Canadians in this radically different environment will have to be seen. Yet, if the polls don’t move much from where they are today, it’s unlikely the environmental focused, anti oil and gas overtures will be well received enough to win over new seats.

Though, there are some areas where Lewis’ policies may appeal to a greater share of Canadians.

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Economic Issues

Targeting corporations and the rich in Canada has been a popular position to take for the last decade or more, and unlike environmental policies, these have seen little fluctuation in their level of support.

For example, Lewis’ platform states, “We will introduce a wealth tax of 1% on net wealth above $10 million, 2% above $50 million and 3% above $100 million.” This policy remains popular, with polling from Leger in 2024 finding 78% of Canadians support the idea of a wealth tax on those who hold more than $10 million worth of assets.

However, Lewis’ platform also follows up with, “Canada is the only G7 country without an inheritance or estate tax. We propose a 45% tax on the estate/inheritance of wealth of over $5 million” which ends up being a losing issue for Lewis, as the same poll found only 29% of Canadians support the idea of an inheritance tax.

Lewis also wants to create a number of new publicly owned corporations in fields such as energy, grocery stores and telecommunications. This is a bit of a tricky one to pin down where Canadians stand, because we don’t have any current polling to back up the idea of publicly owned corporations in these fields.

Polling from over the years does tell us that Canadians want more competition in our markets, such as Angus Reid in 2023 finding 78% of Canadians say there needs to be more competition in the airline industry, or 72% who say the same thing for the telecommunications industry.

A Nanos poll from 2025 finds 68% of Canadians believe increased competition from smaller, regional telecom companies would lower prices, while 75% believe the market is dominated by a very small group of large national carriers.

So while this shows a real appetite for new competition to be introduced into our markets (which is desperately needed), it does not tell us whether Canadians would be happy with the idea of government run services stepping in to provide that service. We’ll have to wait and see if pollsters explore these options now that Lewis has been elected leader.

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Another issue that Lewis brought up in his platform was the promise to reintroduce the Digital Services Tax, which was a program that taxed digital services, predominately non-Canadian ones, that relied on Canadian data or contribution by Canadians. That tax saw fierce backlash from the likes of Google, Facebook, and the US government, which eventually led to the repeal of the tax by Mark Carney last year.

Innovative Research found that 48% of Canadians believe that imposing a digital service tax on US tech companies was a good idea, while another 34% believed that it was a bad idea. Support was highest among New Democrats at 62%, with Bloc and Liberal voters a little further back at 60% and 58%, respectively.

Lewis is also calling for the following, “It’s time to cap the rents. A national cap on rent will give power back to renters and make life more affordable by putting an end to steep rent hikes.” There are questions as to how the federal government would go about implementing rent control, but with that aside, 65% of Canadians say they would support rent control where they live, as per a June 2023 Narrative Research poll.

The platform also calls for building a million new homes, including social, co-op, non-profit and supportive housing within five years. A poll from Leger in 2024 found 65% of Canadians believed a budget proposal to spend $8.5 billion to help build 3.9 million new homes by 2031 was a good idea. A slightly older Leger poll from mid-2023 found 79% believe government supplied housing would improve the rental situation, while 77% say tightening rental controls would also help the situation.

Conclusion

In the end, Avi Lewis is out of step with Canadians when it comes to immigration and oil and gas, while his overemphasis on the environment comes at a time when Canadians aren’t particularly focused on conservation and more on economic growth. Where he does excel is on the economic front, with popular policies that tackle the rich and powerful being the diamond in the rough for the new NDP leader.

Whether Lewis will be able to push his ideas forward and gather enough traction ahead of the next election to regrow the party will have to be seen. Yet, unless the situation changes around present issues like immigration, the NDP is going to be seen as an unacceptable choice for many of the CPC-NDP voters they rely on in non-urban ridings.

The flipside would be the NDP’s more progressive minded policies that appeal to downtown urban voters, but unless the Liberals start to come down dramatically in the polls, the NDP are running head first into the Liberal grinding machine that killed Jagmeet Singh for many years, and are at risk of rerunning the same failed electoral strategy that put the NDP in its current situation.

Lewis has a lot of work ahead of him, and right now the dashboard is lit up with just about every light you can imagine. Will he succeed and bring the party back from the brink, or will his push to the left alienate what voters are left in the NDP, and crater it into non-existence? Time will tell.

Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for March 28, 2026!

This past week saw two new polls, the weekly Nanos and Liaison trackers.

Liaison found both major parties ticking up this week, with the Liberals up to 46% (+1 compared to Mar 14), Conservatives at 32% (+1), while the NDP was also up to 9% (+1). The Bloc was up to 7% (+1), while the Greens were stable at 3% (-), and the PPC was down to 2% (-2).

Nanos saw the Liberal lead tick down, with the Grits at 46% (-2 compared to Mar 13), Conservatives up to 33% (+2), NDP at 12% (+1), and Bloc at 5% (-). The Greens were stable at 4% (-), alongside the PPC at 1% (-).

There was also an Atlantic poll released by Narrative that found the Liberals at 67% (+11 compared to the election), Conservatives at 22% (-16), NDP at 9% (+5), Greens at 2% (+1), and PPC at 1% (-)

Overall, the Liberal lead nationally remains stable at thirteen points, with some minor movement regionally.

The Liberal lead grew in Atlantic Canada (+1 compared to last week), while remaining stable in every other region and province they currently hold leads in. The Conservative lead in Alberta rebounded this week (+3), while they inched down in the central prairies (-1).

Liberals saw their lead among women inch down (-1), while remaining stable among men. Meanwhile, their lead among those over 55 years of age also ticked down (-1), alongside those aged 35-54 (-1), while remaining stable among the youngest group of voters.

Let us take a look at this week’s model and other polls making headlines!

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New polling from the Angus Reid Institute is taking a look at former New Democratic voters across the country and gauges their reactions to the state of the party today.

Right off the top, 13% of those who responded say they’ve voted for the party in the past (which Angus Reid defines as voters who have voted NDP at least once since the 2015 election) and would consider voting for the party again today.

Another 10% of respondents say they’ve voted for the NDP in the past, but would not be likely to consider voting for the party again in the future, while another 2% say they’ve voted for the party previously, but are unsure how they feel.

The remaining 75% of respondents are those who have not voted for the NDP in the last four elections, kicking them out of the respondent pool and leaving the rest of the questions for that 25% of Canadians who have voted for the party in the past.

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Among those NDP voters, about 52% say they would either be very likely or likely to consider voting for the NDP in the next federal election, while another 41% say they would either be unlikely or not likely at all to consider doing so.

Naturally, the highest share of respondents who say they’d be likely to vote for the NDP in the future comes from current NDP voters, of which 93% say as much. That number drops slightly to 83% among those who voted NDP in 2025, with 13% of recent NDP voters saying they’d be unlikely to support the party again.

Among those past NDP voters who voted for the Liberals in 2025, about 50% say they would be likely to consider supporting the party again in the future, a key demographic given how many votes shifted from the NDP to the Liberals after Carney took over the Prime Ministership.

Former NDP voters who lent their vote to the Conservatives in 2025 are much less likely to consider supporting the party, with only 26% of those previous voters saying they’d be likely to do so, compared to 72% who say they’d be unlikely.

When broken down by region, the provinces with past NDP voters that are the most likely to support the party in the future were Alberta, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, and Saskatchewan. All of these provinces have notable NDP presences at the provincial level, especially in Alberta and Saskatchewan where the NDP has a sizeable Official Opposition caucus in the wings.

However, former NDP voters in Quebec are the most hostile to the idea of supporting the party again, with only 37% saying they’d be likely to consider voting NDP in the future, compared to 54% who say they’re unlikely. If any Dippers still had dreams of a renewed Orange Wave across Quebec, they should probably put those dreams to bed for the foreseeable future.

The NDP fares okay in Ontario and British Columbia, two provinces they desperately need to regain voters in to achieve party status again. It was a disastrous result for the NDP when they were shut out of Ontario, even failing to win the NDP heartland of Hamilton Centre, where they finished third behind the Conservatives.

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Lastly, the survey asked former NDP voters a series of statements and whether they agreed with them or not.

69% of former voters say the NDP is still the party of the working class, with 81% of 2025 NDP voters agreeing, alongside 72% of Liberal voters and a noticeable 44% of Conservative voters. Given how much the Conservatives have pulled blue collar workers away from the NDP in recent years, it’s no surprise recent Conservative voters were the most hostile on this question.

Another 37% say the NDP is the only major party concerned about climate change, with 46% of 2025 NDP voters agreeing as much, compared to 38% of Liberal voters and 17% of Conservative ones.

While there’s much gloom about the state of the party, only 25% of former NDP voters agree that the party is irrelevant today. Those who voted Conservative last election sat at 56% on this question, much higher than the 21% of Liberals or 13% of NDP voters who agree with the sentiment, though even 7% of current NDP voters say their party is irrelevant today.

Finally, 40% say the NDP’s best days are behind it, with 65% of Conservatives, 39% of Liberals, and 22% of NDP voters agreeing with that sentiment, alongside 14% of current NDP voters.

With the NDP leadership election slated for this weekend in Winnipeg, we’ll finally know who will lead the dilapidated party moving forward. If fundraising numbers are any indication (and they’re typically a good one in this instance), then Avi Lewis looks likely to win the leadership election handily. If Lewis does win, expect a lengthy look at his policy positions compared to where the Canadian public stands to be posted on this Substack when the official results are released.

Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for March 21, 2026!

This past week saw six new polls, the weekly Nanos and Liaison trackers, Abacus, Mainstreet, EKOS, and Angus Reid

Liaison saw the Liberals inch up to 45% (+1 compared to Mar 7), alongside the Conservatives at 31% (+1), with the NDP down to 8% (-1) and Bloc at 6% (-). The PPC remains elevated at 4% (-), with the Greens at 3% (-).

Nanos found the gap between the Liberals and Conservatives grow further, with the Grits at 48% (+2 compared to Mar 6), Conservatives at 31% (-2), NDP at 11% (+1), and Bloc at 5% (-). The Greens dipped to 4% (-1), with the PPC at 1% (-).

Abacus also saw the gap widen, with the Liberals at 46% (+2 compared to Feb 23), Tories down to 35% (-3), NDP at 7% (-) and Bloc up to 7% (+1). The Greens remain stable at 3% (-), with the PPC at 1% (-).

Mainstreet’s poll has come down from the previous fifteen point lead, with the Liberals at 46% (-5 compared to Feb 2), Conservatives stable at 36% (-), NDP up to 7% (+3), and Bloc down to 4% (-2). The PPC rose to 3% (+2), while the Greens were even at 2% (-).

EKOS shared an eye watering poll with the Liberals at 48% (+4 compared to Jan 30), the Conservative dropping into the 20s at 27% (-3), the NDP up to 15% (+1), and Bloc at 4% (-1). The Greens were also up to 5% (+1), with the PPC stable at 2% (-).

Angus Reid also saw an increase for the Conservatives this week, with the Liberals at 44% (-1 compared to Feb 23), Conservatives up to 36% (+4), NDP down to 9% (-1), with the Bloc at 7% (-). The Greens dipped to 2% (-2), with others at 1%.

Overall, the Liberal lead remained steady at the national level, with the Liberals maintaining a thirteen point lead over the Conservatives on average.

The Liberal lead shrank in Atlantic Canada (-2 compared to last week), while their lead grew in Quebec (+2), and British Columbia (+3). Ontario remains unchanged this week.

Meanwhile, the Conservatives ticked up in Alberta (+1), while maintaining their previous lead in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

Let us take a look at this week’s model and other polls making headlines!

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Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for March 14, 2026!

This past week saw four new polls, the weekly Nanos and Liaison trackers, Spark Insights and Pollara.

Liaison’s poll had the Liberals up to 44% (+1 compared to Feb 28), the Conservatives dropping to 30% (-3), NDP at 9% (-), and the Bloc at 6% (-). The PPC came it at 4% (+2), and the Greens at 3% (-).

Nanos saw the Liberals rise further, with the Grits at 46% (+2 compared to Feb 27), Conservatives at 33% (-), NDP at 10% (-1), and Bloc at 5% (-). The Greens were stable at 5% (-), as well as the PPC at 1% (-).

Spark released its first poll of the year, finding the Liberals at 46% (+5 compared to May 30, 2025), Conservatives tanking to 31% (-9), NDP up to 10% (+2), and the Bloc at 5% (-). Other Parties made up 8% of the vote, up from 5% in May.

Pollara dropped its first poll since the 2025 election, with the Liberals at 47% (+3 compared to the election result), 34% for the Conservatives (-7), with the NDP at 9% (+3) and Bloc at 7% (+1). Other parties made up 3% of the poll.

Overall, the Liberal lead expanded by two points nationally this week, with the Liberals at 46% and the Conservatives at 33%, leaving the Grits thirteen points ahead of their rivals.

The Liberal lead grew in Quebec (+1 compared to last week), and in British Columbia (+2), while their lead shrunk in Atlantic Canada (-2).

Meanwhile, the Conservatives are continuing to lose ground in the prairies, with their lead in Alberta dropping to only nine-points (-3), and in Saskatchewan/Manitoba it’s down to five points (-4).

Let us take a look at this week’s model and other polls making headlines!

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New polling is shedding light on how Canadians feel about Mark Carney’s government so far, and how that compares to Justin Trudeau, who left office with an abysmal approval rating at the end of 2024.

Their previous poll in May 2025 found 49% of Canadians wanting Carney’s government to completely change course on government policy, compared to 38% who wanted minor changes to be made, and only 13% who said they didn’t want any changes made.

Among Liberal voters, those numbers sat at 53% who wanted minor changes compared to Trudeau’s government, 32% who wanted to completely change course, and only 16% who wanted to stay the course.

Compare that to today, when Pollara asked Canadians how they felt Carney’s government has moved compared to Trudeau, and expectations are now meeting reality in a mixed bag.

Only 28% of Canadians believe that Carney’s government has completely changed course compared to Trudeau, while 43% say they’ve made minor changes along the way. A noticeable share of Canadians (30%) say that the government has broadly stayed the course, with 20% of Liberals feeling the same way.

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There’s likely overlap between the 30% of Canadians who believe Carney’s government has broadly maintained the same course as Trudeau’s did, and the 35% of Canadians who say that Carney’s government is just a fourth term of Liberal governance.

Pollara found another 40% of Canadians who believe that Carney’s government feels more like the first term of a new government, rather than another term of the decade-long Liberal government started under Trudeau.

Unsurprisingly, 58% of Conservatives say that it feels more like a fourth Liberal term, alongside 33% of New Democrats, 31% of Bloc, and 26% of Liberals.

However, a quarter of Conservatives say Carney’s government feels more like the first term of a new government, a sentiment shared among 56% of Liberals, 48% of New Democrats, 46% of Bloc, and 26% of non-voters.

If you roam around left leaning circles online, you’ll have seen plenty of users making claims that Carney is a conservative under the Liberal brand. Interestingly, Pollara asked Canadians whether they feel like Carney’s government feels more like a Progressive Conservative government or not.

Overall, 35% of Canadians agreed with that sentiment, which included 48% of New Democrats, 47% of Bloc, and 44% of Liberals. Conservatives were much less likely to agree with such a statement, however even 26% of Conservative voters feel like Carney is more like a PC rather than a Liberal.

Disagreement with that statement was highest among Conservatives at 64%, Liberals at 40%, and New Democrats at 34%. Meanwhile, non-voters are broadly unsure how they feel about the notion that Carney’s government feels more like a Progressive Conservative one, with nearly half of non-voters saying they’re unsure.

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When it comes to the issues, Canadians are once again something of a mixed bag.

The two issues Canadians say have worsened the most since Carney took over as Prime Minister are Canada-US relations and the cost of living, with 55% of Canadians saying both have gotten worse.

Carney’s strongest suits have been international relations and federal provincial relations, with 39% and 25% of Canadians, respectively, saying those areas have improved under his leadership.

Issues such as the economy and jobs find 18% and 14% of Canadians saying they’ve improved, while 32% and 38% say they’ve stayed largely the same. However, 36-38% of Canadians say those two issues have gotten worse in the last year.

Regardless of how Canadians feel about the situation on each issue, what is clear is that many Canadians vastly prefer Carney’s approach on the issues compared to Trudeau’s.

For example, only 8% of Canadians say they preferred Trudeau’s approach to Canada-US relations, while 47% say they prefer Carney’s approach, with another quarter of Canadians saying they dislike both equally.

Similarly, 45% of Canadians preferred Carney’s approach to international relations, compared to the 8% who said the same for Trudeau’s approach, while 23% dislike both equally.

Once again, the cost of living remains Carney’s most notable pain point, with 39% of Canadians disliking both his and Trudeau’s approach on the issue, while 25% prefer Carney’s approach and 7% prefer Trudeau’s approach.

Overall, while Canadians broadly approve of Carney’s handling of government during his first year in office, there is certainly a divergence of views across the board in how Canadians view his government itself and how it is handling the issues of the day. As Carney passes his first year in office, only time will tell how Canadians will view the rest of his prime ministership.

Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for March 7, 2026!

This past week saw four new polls, the weekly Nanos and Liaison trackers, Ipsos and Leger.

Liaison saw the Liberals tick down from a recent high to 43% (-2 compared to Feb 21), while the Conservatives sit at 33% (-), NDP at 9% (-), and the Bloc at 6% (-). The Greens and PPC were also stable at 3% and 2%, respectively.

Nanos registered a different trend, with the Liberals jumping to 44% (+3 compared to Feb 20), the Conservatives down to 33% (-1), NDP at 11% (-), and Bloc tanking to 5% (-3). The Greens were stable at 5% (-), alongside the PPC at 1% (-).

Ipsos found the Liberals jumping to 44% (+4 compared to Dec 15), Conservatives ticking down to 36% (-1), NDP down to 8% (-1), and the Bloc down to 7% (-2). The Greens were up to 3% (+1), while the PPC was down to 1% (-1).

Leger’s poll had the Liberals bouncing to 49% (+2 compared to Jan 26), while the Conservatives fell to 35% (-3), the NDP steady at 5% (-), and the Bloc also dipping to 5% (-1). The Greens were up to 3% (+1), while other parties were up to 2% (+1).

Overall, the Liberal lead nationally remains stable, while the NDP saw a dip to 8% this week.

The Liberal lead slipped in Atlantic Canada (-2 compared to last week), and Ontario (-1), while rising in Quebec (+3). The Conservative lead slipped in Saskatchewan/Manitoba (-1), while dipping slightly more in Alberta (-2).

Let us take a look at this week’s model and other polls making headlines!

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With America kicking off a war in the Middle East alongside Israel and seeing as how the conflict is rapidly devolving into a regional conflict with many nations on the receiving end of missiles and drones, Canadians aren’t thrilled with the prospects.

Only 34% of Canadians say they support the United States and Israel carrying out airstrikes against Iran, of which the initial opening salvo killed the Supreme Leader of Iran alongside many top Iranian government officials. On the flip side, 49% oppose the move, while another 17% of Canadians are unsure how they feel about the issue.

Conservatives were strongly in support of the American-Israeli airstrikes that have led to the ongoing war in the Middle East, with 64% supporting the move and 24% opposing it.

Conversely, Liberal and New Democratic voters are strongly opposed to the move by the Americans, with 69% and 74% opposing the move, respectively.

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Whether you believe the unconvincing argument by the Americans that they’re engaging in these strikes on Iran to support protestors on the ground and other Iranians to break free from the authoritarian regime, Canadians broadly have mixed views of the situation.

When asked whether they believe this military action will make life in Iran better or worse, 34% said the latter, with only 28% of Canadians believing the bombing campaign will make the lives of Iranians better. Another 19% said that it’ll make no difference, while an additional 19% were unsure.

Once again, Conservatives were strongly of the opinion this will make lives better for Iranians, with 54% saying as much, compared to only 16% who say it’ll make life worse for those in the nation.

Only 11% and 12% of Liberals and New Democrats believe life will be better off, while 45% and 58%, respectively, say things will get worse for those living in Iran.

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Those negative sentiments extend to the rest of the world and those engaging in the bombing campaign as well, with Canadians broadly believing no one will be any safer because of this conflict.

The survey found 27% of Canadians believe the world will be safer thanks to the ongoing military action, including 51% of Conservatives, while 47% believe the world will be less safe as a result.

It also found 26% of Canadians saying Israel will be safer thanks to the conflict, while another 43% believe that it’ll make the state less safe, with 60% of New Democrats and 56% of Liberals agreeing.

The nation Canadians believe will benefit the least from this war is America, where only 17% say the US will be safer for its action abroad, compared to 28% who say there will be no difference and 46% who say the US will be less safe as a result.

Conservatives stand out on every question, with those voters being more likely than not to say the world will be safer and better off thanks to US military action against Iran.

Yet, how long will this conflict go on? Trump argues that it’ll last four to five weeks, yet we’ve seen conflicts like this quickly spiral into months, if not years long quagmires.

Overall, 9% of Canadians believe the conflict in Iran will last less than a month, while 27% believe that it’ll be over in less than six months. That includes a combined total of 54% of Conservatives, 29% of Liberals, and 18% of New Democrats who believe the war will be over in less than six months.

Another 19% believe the war will last between six months and a year, with 18% of Conservatives, 19% of Liberals, and 27% of New Democrats holding that view.

Then we start to get into Afghanistan and Iraq territory, with 21% of Canadians believing the war will last between one and five years, while 5% say that it’ll last between five years and a decade. Only 4% believe that the conflict will last more than a decade, which for context, the Americans were in Afghanistan for more than two decades, and in Iraq for about a decade.

How long this war will last is anyone’s guess. The sheer buildup of American forces in the region suggests they’re in it for the long haul, with rumours on Capitol Hill that they may have to turn to boots on the ground at some point in the conflict. But that’s an entirely different political situation for our neighbours down south to deal with, and the backlash that is almost certainly heading their way politically.

Welcome to your Polling Canada model update for February 28, 2026!

This past week saw four new polls, the weekly Nanos and Liaison trackers, Angus Reid, and Innovative.

Liaison saw the Liberals expand their lead again this week, with the Grits jumping to 45% (+2 compared to Feb 14), the Conservatives down to 33% (-1), the NDP at 9% (-1), and Bloc at 6% (-). The Greens were up to 3% (+1), with the PPC stable at 2% (-).

Nanos registered a staggering turn around on their rolling poll, with the Liberals up to 41% (+3 compared to Feb 13), Conservatives down to 34% (-3), NDP at 11% (-), and Bloc at 8% (-). The Greens were also up to 5% (+1), with the PPC flat at 1% (-).

Angus Reid also saw a dramatic turn, with the Liberals jumping to 45% (+4 since Jan 26), Conservatives down to 32% (-6), NDP at 10% (-), and the Bloc at 7% (-). The Greens were also up to 4% (+2).

Innovative released a topline poll which also broke from their close race, as the Liberals ticked up to 44% (+4 compared to Feb 2), Conservatives down to 38% (-1), NDP at 8% (-2), and Bloc at 6% (-1). The Greens were stable at 3% (-). No regionals were released for this poll, so only the topline is included in this week’s model.

Overall, the Liberal lead grew this week, expanding to an eleven-point margin (+2 compared to last week).

The Liberal lead grew in Atlantic Canada (+6), Ontario (+1), British Columbia (+1), and Quebec (+1). Meanwhile, the Conservative lead in the central prairies shrank slightly (-1), while taking a much more notable hit in Alberta (-7).

Let us take a look at this week’s model and other polls making headlines!

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